When you look at last century, you only had to choose one particular asset class every 10 or 20 years and ride it to achieve maximal return. Precious metals in the seventies, stocks from the early 80's to the late 90's, commodities from 00 till today...
When you analyze these runs you can clearly distinguish the different phases each of them going through from disbelieve to mania.
So, if you believe this to be true you need to determine which asset to own today and how far it is in it's run.
I believe it is precious metals.
How far are we in the run?
Not in the beginning obviously.
Previous bull markets in the commodity sector (not solely the precious metals) suggest they last somewhere between 15 to 20 years. The first part of the cycle the metals lag to the industrials and oil, as the business cycle turns protection is seeked giving the metals the advantage.
Then after the run new supply (which takes a long time) comes online, other asset classes get so beaten down they become attractive, there is too much speculation etc so you need to get out or you get burned.
Where are we today?
I believe we are entering the phase or are in the phase preceding the mania phase so I have positioned myself accordingly.
I had the luck of my biggest play (outside of my gold itself) outperforming the entire sector (Novagold) which I sold about a month ago to spread the gains in some more speculative plays you could say to get the most when and if we reach the mania part.
I currently own
as the high risk plays I mentioned before and also own
as the more estabished companies of which I am at least relatively sure they actually have some gold and silver in the ground.
I'm sure there is a lot of assumption here and bias given my stake in this.
I get it why gold bulls or bugs get frowned upon at times and their tendentious vision on anything related economics or marketwise can be iritating at times.
Many have infact fallen in love with their investment and will have a hard time parting from it should the perfect occasion presents itself.
Whether I myself will have the vision to act at such a time remains as much of a question as whether this run in the metals has any more legs but I am willing to take a chance on both.
Anyway, I will follow this topic as I followed the previous one.