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Lucias
Registered: Nov 2010
Posts: 996 |
02-23-12 12:19 AM
Okay if you want #'s...
You can see my systems at Predictor Discretionary (discretionary system) and Predictor Day.. one of my mechanical systems. All the trades were recorded there. I am now trading 6k but its only because I've put more money into my account. I've netted I estimate around $330 since inception in real money. This is basically break/even. I'll be risking around $650 day. I think if I perform well then I can average between $600-$1500 month.
Quote from sfbayarea:
Wow.. There's actually some number figures being thrown up. It's actually more interesting now.
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KBaines
Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 41 |
02-23-12 04:05 AM
Quote from Lucias:
Okay if you want #'s...
You can see my systems at Predictor Discretionary (discretionary system) and Predictor Day.. one of my mechanical systems. All the trades were recorded there. I am now trading 6k but its only because I've put more money into my account. I've netted I estimate around $330 since inception in real money. This is basically break/even. I'll be risking around $650 day. I think if I perform well then I can average between $600-$1500 month.
Lucias, many are not cut out to trade real money because of their risk tolerances. In your case, you were swinging for the fences with your make believe money account but now with real money on the line you are a different and very fearing low risk tolerant animal. $600 to $1500 a month is a far cry from your Pollyanna aspirations in your make believe account. Regardless, I give you an "A+" for honesty, a trait few on this forum seem to possess.
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Lucias
Registered: Nov 2010
Posts: 996 |
02-23-12 04:11 AM
My original account I started here was real money. I am risking way more then I ever did in my hypothetical: I was max at 5x leverage. I will be at 10x leverage. I was previously at 30x-40x leverage in my real money. The difference you may be noticing is that my sub/system had about 60k-80k so I was trading several contracts. I was risking 3% max per day. I will be risking 10% max per day. I'm not too happy with it but I can't "gear" any lower and even if I could the returns might not be worth bothering with,
One thing that maybe wasn't clear is that I was recording the max risk per trade which was the total spread cost to my account. In most cases, it was a low probability for me to get hit with total loss. Likewise, in the futures when I risk large amounts I avoid historically taking the hits. I often found my futures account realized less risk trading 5 contracts then my NADEX account because of my skill.
If I had stayed with the program last year.. I would have returned easily 100% just on my system trades. I exited right at worst down spot. But I don't regret it because I had money hardships outside the market. I don't regret it at all.
The estimate I give is just extrapolated from my historical returns. The numbers were just pulled from what I historically have been able to do when adjusted for the increased leverage.
Thanks for realizing I'm honest..
Lucias, many are not cut out to trade real money because of their risk tolerances. In your case, you were swinging for the fences with your make believe money account but now with real money on the line you are a different and very fearing low risk tolerant animal. $600 to $1500 a month is a far cry from your Pollyanna aspirations in your make believe account. Regardless, I give you an "A+" for honesty, a trait few on this forum seem to possess.
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Lucias
Registered: Nov 2010
Posts: 996 |
02-23-12 05:29 AM
This is a good question. I don't believe in setups... well except when I do. I trade multiple paradigms and methodologies. I have about 3-4 discretionary methodologies and one operational system and several "proto-systems".
My discretionary styles are distinct and clear to me but they are broken down into those that use real-time data and those that don't:
1. Predictions: These are made in advance. Real-time data is not very important. This used to be my B&B.
2. Momentum plays/Day plays: I call the direction for the day and shoot for big swings. The goal is to hold until the EOD. My goal is to offer the unfair price. At times, I would even hold these for an extra day.
3. Measured moves/"market making": The goal is to take out measured/micro moves. I am always offering "fair prices". I would not hold these overnight, if possible. This is my current method. One difficulty with this method when trading a 1 lot though is that typically I like to put a position on to get a feel for it. The position is usually very small and then I add to it or take it off. So, there are some tricks to make this method work which may prove more difficult for me in my RM account until I can trade multiple lots.
Of course, I do have specific setups but its really not the way I think about the market. I'm trying to figure out where it is going. I want to know whats the main influence on the market.
Trading for trends tends to be most efficient. However, I can leverage more contracts when trading #3 style and have grown to prefer it better. The momentum trading tends to require bigger swings. I'm not as fond of that.
Quote from ocean5:
Lucias,did you trade one setup only or several?
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