Registered: Sep 2010
Posts: 588

now longterm system in green and high for the year and close to all time high - time for review.

Expected that markets will be in downtrend in symphaty with after '87 scenario at least till new year. So far, massive job losses have not eventuated in Melbourne & Sydney which are recepients of government subsidies paid by mining. However, there are job losses, just done in more quiet way. Estimate we are in recession, but numbers massaged. Hot suburbs sale activity dropped off sharply and unemploymnet in pricier suburbs creeping up.

QLD and WA were allowed to delverage, probably as they are economically strongest states. NSW and VIC still not. Also minimizes the shock for the country.

However, this is not important on global scale. Most of the world is doing well.

For now, I remain long.

Registered: Sep 2010
Posts: 588

Feel good rally to encourage consumers. Protests probably helped. 1 hedge fund guy was sent to prison already so now banksters have to be nicer for a while.

Started cothinking about scaling out & -> short. Patience is virtue. Hope to handle pressure better this time as I scaled back in not the best way.
Will employ options to enhance yield. Feel my winnings from winning trade should be larger.

Consider selling calls (for the stocks i own), instead of buying puts. Maybe both.

Registered: Sep 2010
Posts: 588

My portfolio is now 100% AUD based. Winnings from the rally (i am positioned for) will flow to currencies with diversified economy. EUR and USD will be my choices to keep it simple.

First lot ( 3% of account) will flow to USD.

However when getting clear sell or buy signal will position larger part of portfolio aggresively in short period of time.

Registered: Sep 2010
Posts: 588

i dont trust charts. especially in century of machines and phds without a clue behind them. i dont do breakout trading anymore. And hate margin.

However, after a bottle or two of good wine, have a look and charts make sense. Comparision of asx in '87 vs '08, continuation. All markets similar anyway. I think we have a bit to go on upside. I am pretty much long.

My take is this is feel good rally so cristmas season willbe good as people feel wealthier and safer with markets up. How otherwise propping up economy ?!?!? Cant see any other way left.

wine here got really cheap. Now i can get sub $10 quality wine I used to pay 20-30. Wineries not on a list of subsidy, obviously. Pitty. This is one industry that would be competitive no matter what aud level due to natural advantages.

longs dream.jpg
This has been downloaded 110 time(s).

Registered: Sep 2010
Posts: 588

brutal

Registered: Sep 2010
Posts: 588

swept first bit of profit in usd.

next one if it arrives, probably usd as well.

there seem to be awful lot of shorts or money sitting in cash, possibly exiting after break down. See hedge fund statistics for october. They have not moved up in october.

Chinese going up, japs some positive vibes as well. americans in + for the year.

good potential for extra lot or two of profits.

I dont like options. You have to predict direction and when it will happen. One way to increase effect of valid directional call is to buy higher beta stocks. I will only short via currencies, this is buy USD or similar. No real short position in this money printing, f*you short squeeze era.

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