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OddTrader
 

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 5283

 

02-10-11 02:14 AM

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...321#post3086321


Quote from OddTrader:

After starting this thread below about my spare system, I now have a better understanding of developing systems.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=213261

There should be basically two very different types of trading systems: A. Stand Alone; B. Portfolio Hedge. (as per Managed Trading by Schwager)

Most retail traders would be mainly interested in developing stand-alone type systems in order to target much higher returns (above 40% pa), with much higher drawdowns (as long as acceptable to the system trader himself). Seeking greater alpha would be very important. I think my main system is this A type. I think many HFs would run A type systems.

However I believe many professional traders would be more interested in developing portfolio-hedge type systems targeting industry norm returns (about 20% pa before/after fees), with much smaller drawdowns (must be acceptable by institutional investors). Its performance (un-)correlation aganist S&P 500 would be more important for them. I think my spare system should be this B type. I think many CTAs actually run type B systems.

Just my thoughts!

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...nt&pagenumber=2



The trading system in this thread, due to its small returns as I think, would not be interested by most retail traders who are alpha hunters aggressively seeking excess returns (type A above).

Instead, this thread trading ES against S&P 500 Index (as benchmark) is for a type B system very much about managing beta risk by providing (similar to what many CTAs doing):
1. not only negative correlation during S&P 500 market either declining or crash,
2. but also positive correlation during S&P 500 market moving upwards either slowly/steadily or dramatically/progressively.

Perhaps due to these unique characteristics, Schwager in his book Managing Trading (written solely about CTAs/Managed-Futures trading) mentioned/ discussed nearly nothing about either beta or alpha (surely these conventional measures would be applicable to CTAs in certain ways).

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OddTrader
 

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 5283

 

02-14-11 10:55 AM

Update: Including correction of previous signals (Based on historical prices of SPY):

Wk 10Jan2011 Long 1271.40;
Wk 17Jan2011 Long 1293.00;
Wk 24Jan2011 Long 1283.70;
Wk 31Jan2011 Short 1277.20;
Wk 07Feb2011 Long 1311.50; and
Wk 14Feb2011 Long 1333.10.

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OddTrader
 

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 5283

 

02-25-11 07:19 PM


Quote from OddTrader:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...321#post3086321

The trading system in this thread, due to its small returns as I think, would not be interested by most retail traders who are alpha hunters aggressively seeking excess returns (type A above).

Instead, this thread trading ES against S&P 500 Index (as benchmark) is for a type B system very much about managing beta risk by providing (similar to what many CTAs doing):
1. not only negative correlation during S&P 500 market either declining or crash,
2. but also positive correlation during S&P 500 market moving upwards either slowly/steadily or dramatically/progressively.

Perhaps due to these unique characteristics, Schwager in his book Managing Trading (written solely about CTAs/Managed-Futures trading) mentioned/ discussed nearly nothing about either beta or alpha (surely these conventional measures would be applicable to CTAs in certain ways).



Should be good and useful for hedging systemic risk.

Q

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systemic_risk

In finance, systemic risk is the risk of collapse of an entire financial system or entire market, as opposed to risk associated with any one individual entity, group or component of a system.[1][2] It can be defined as "financial system instability, potentially catastrophic, caused or exacerbated by idiosyncratic events or conditions in financial intermediaries".[3] It refers to the risks imposed by interlinkages and interdependencies in a system or market, where the failure of a single entity or cluster of entities can cause a cascading failure, which could potentially bankrupt or bring down the entire system or market.[4] It is also sometimes erroneously referred to as "systematic risk".

UQ

Q
http://www.businessdictionary.com/d...temic-risk.html

1. General: Probability of loss or failure common to all members of a class or group or to an entire system. Erroneously also called systematic risk.

2. Investing and trading: Probability of loss common to all businesses and investment opportunities, and inherent in all dealings in a market. Also called market risk, it cannot be circumvented or eliminated by portfolio diversification but may be reduced by hedging. In stock markets, systemic risk is measured by beta-coefficient.

UQ

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