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r-in
Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 1227 |
08-27-10 04:18 PM
Not sure I hit the right thread, but interesting more or less trading money management story. A friend who trades using IBD and position trading decided to try an experiment with the lottery. He has been playing for the last 3 months, and is ahead $300+ . He is charting numbers and spent some time going through historical number draws, and is playing based on most common occurences of numbers. He also maintains recent draws and does some kind of discount(not sure if that would be correct term) based on recent history to account for when numbers were drawn.
He obviously isn't getting rich, but at the same time would this qualify as statistcally significant, as he is ahead.
To me it is intersesting as for no other reason as does it make lotto land predictable?
I'll try to update, but he is not real keen on sharing as he feels it may change how the lottery people operate.
I found it fasicnating.
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nLepwa
Registered: Feb 2010
Posts: 301 |
08-27-10 04:51 PM
Quote from r-in:
Not sure I hit the right thread, but interesting more or less trading money management story. A friend who trades using IBD and position trading decided to try an experiment with the lottery. He has been playing for the last 3 months, and is ahead $300+ . He is charting numbers and spent some time going through historical number draws, and is playing based on most common occurences of numbers. He also maintains recent draws and does some kind of discount(not sure if that would be correct term) based on recent history to account for when numbers were drawn.
He obviously isn't getting rich, but at the same time would this qualify as statistcally significant, as he is ahead.
To me it is intersesting as for no other reason as does it make lotto land predictable?
I'll try to update, but he is not real keen on sharing as he feels it may change how the lottery people operate.
I found it fasicnating.
You should get a good book on statistics and read it.
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r-in
Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 1227 |
08-28-10 12:36 AM
I have a fair education in stats, and I relearned it while my wife was going through her Masters. The guy never spends more than $10 a week, and as I stated he is $300 to the positive. No claims of amazing returns, but he has been consistent, and not a one time win to get there. I need to double check with him, but I'm fairly certain he said he has won cash 11 times in the last 3 months. I think they draw twice a week in the lotto he is using, so roughly 24 drawings and he has won 11 times and is ahead.
I will try to get more info from him and post if it keeps up. I will also double check he means he is +$300 over cost and not just +$300 in winnings. I am fairly sure he meant he was +$300 over his costs. Ie he made back cost +$300.
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intradaybill
Registered: Feb 2008
Posts: 2962 |
08-28-10 07:43 AM
He is just on a lucky winning streak. It is Probability you should read, not Statistics. This is why you do not udnerstand it, because you read the wrong subject. Any finite sequence of coin tosses has a non-zero probability to end up all heads or all tails. Only at the limit of infinity this breaks down and you have at least one of the other.
He will ne out of luck soon. Keep in mind that there has been extensive research and development to redisign lotetry and casino equipment to remove any bias. Every new drawing is a new experiment in Probability sense.
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