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Whisky
 

Registered: Dec 2008
Posts: 590

 

10-16-09 11:53 AM

This method is a losing method, but very small loser on average on the long term.

It trades ES only.

It makes only 1 trade per day.

It trades everyday.

It outperforms 95% of all traders.

It can be improved.

METHOD:

Everyday at 16:00 EST I go out of the office, give a coin to a beggar in the street with the condition that he has to toss it hard in the ground, and then he can pick it up and keep it.

If the coin comes out heads, method goes LONG ES at 16:15, if the coin comes out tails, method goes short at 16:15.

The standard exit is on the next trading day close at 16:15 (unless coin comes up in the same direction, which allows for saving some commissions by matching the exit with the next entry).

The METHOD embraces a 1 full day risk, which is, in theory, open ended on the short side, and very large on the long side.

The intention of this thread is to improve logically from this, by definition, 50-50 minus commissions LOSING METHOD.

Yesterday coin toss: TAILS. Short at 1090.

Please discuss, flame, whatever you like. All crap is allowed in this thread. No holds barred. Fire away!.

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Trvlwanderer
 

Registered: May 2006
Posts: 3592

 

10-16-09 12:11 PM

Toss the homeless guy, steal his "pee jug".

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Whisky
 

Registered: Dec 2008
Posts: 590

 

10-16-09 12:16 PM


Quote from Trvlwanderer:

Toss the homeless guy, steal his "pee jug".



And then what?. Hire a Stanford MBA to "trade" the method?. Suboptimal. Original method outperforms your suggested "improvement". The homeless coin tosser is the cheapest labor I could find. I'm not allowed to toss the coin.

The method has to work without me being actively involved. That's a new rule I just made up.

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wee man
 

Registered: Aug 2005
Posts: 1310

 

10-16-09 12:54 PM

What if the homeless tosser decides to do a runner with the coin before acting on your instruction fearing a trick is being played on him - Variables?

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Whisky
 

Registered: Dec 2008
Posts: 590

 

10-16-09 12:55 PM


Quote from wee man:

What if the homeless tosser decides to do a runner with the coin before acting on your instruction fearing a trick is being played on him - Variables?



He doesn't have legs. I give the coin always to the same beggar. He's always looking out for me. KISS.

Today I will introduce the beggar to a trainee trader that wants to do all the work in exchange for instruction. That will free some of my time, and remove me completely from the process.

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wee man
 

Registered: Aug 2005
Posts: 1310

 

10-16-09 12:57 PM


Quote from Whisky:

He doesn't have legs. I give the coin always to the same beggar. KISS.



OK, what if he swallowed it after drinking a bottle of meths?

I know i would.

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