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Old Dec 14th, 2009, 02:17 PM   #151
Trend Following
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Asia
Posts: 742
Quote:
Quote from Rimping:

How should we describe your character? Mean? Offensive?


Quote:
Quote from Rimping:

I read your 'Trendfollowing" with with pleasure.
Thanks.

Quote:
Quote from Rimping:

"Turtle Trader" less so. Especially the nonsense in chapters 11 and forth about "entrepreneurial skills".
I am always open to hear others' opinions about why some Turtles failed. Do you have a view?
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Old Dec 14th, 2009, 02:46 PM   #152
Rimping
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Chiangmai Thailand
Posts: 102
Quote:
Quote from Trend Following:





I am always open to hear others' opinions about why some Turtles failed. Do you have a view?

Because some were not able to stick to the rules. Some were second guessing if I remember well.

Or do you mean to say: some failed AFTER the turtle experiment and why was that?
Well THAT might have to do with entrepreneurial skills. When you want to attract money for example, a smooth talk, a convincing personality and so on are very usefull.

But with trading it has nothing to do. I know of some people with excellent entrepreneurial skills who failed miserably in the markets. When you have to do with people all those above mentioned characteristics are very uselfull to put things to your hands. But markets are not impressed by "entrepreneurial skills" they are not impressed, they sweep you away just as easily.
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Old Dec 14th, 2009, 02:50 PM   #153
Rimping
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Chiangmai Thailand
Posts: 102
I apologize for the distorted sentences in the above post.
But it is still understandable I think.
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Old Dec 14th, 2009, 03:26 PM   #154
salvador90
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 156
.
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Old Dec 14th, 2009, 04:13 PM   #155
Trend Following
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Asia
Posts: 742
Quote:
Quote from Rimping:

I know of some people with excellent entrepreneurial skills who failed miserably in the markets. When you have to do with people all those above mentioned characteristics are very uselfull to put things to your hands. But markets are not impressed by "entrepreneurial skills" they are not impressed, they sweep you away just as easily.
I never said markets were impressed by entrepreneurial skills. I was pointing out why people with the same systems could see some win and some fail.
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Old Dec 14th, 2009, 04:56 PM   #156
jack hershey
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Tucson, AZ
Posts: 8,633
Quote:
Quote from TSGannGalt:

Heh... no one seems to comment on AFG's equity curve so I'll add...

1. The fact that the equity is log-normal, it doesn't provide the true picture of the actual model due to the compounding and it's vulnerable to a variation of a "selection bias" caused by equity curve compression. (Take a look at any index on a log chart and it looks like a very smooth upwards curve until the early 2000s...)

2. Because it is... log normal, there is definitely, at the least, a position sizing scheme included. So we're not sure whether the curve is generated by the risk management implemented or the signal. If AFJ Garner wants to prove a point from a pure "trading system" perspective, he needs to re-generate a risk-adjusted curve.

I have to emphasize that... risk management is a key component common to any kind of trading whether it be trend-following, mean reversion... discretionary... automated... etc. etc. etc.... I mean all trading requires risk management. Though, there is a danger that the RM scheme can be fitted to the curve (just like using MAE/MFE).

What I mean is... I can have a set of bad signals (random entry) and still make the equity curve positive by manipulating the "historical" equity curve. ("Historically possible"... in live trading, it doesn't work that way... Why? *drum roll* Markets Change)

Anyways... I have every reason to be skeptical about the equity curve and I wouldn't look at the continuous line and conclude anything at this point.

--------------------------------------------

AFJ Garner, no offense intended. Your post does serve the point, but everyone else is being a bit too optimistic and conclusive so I had to pull them back and provide them with a sense of perspective...
Most people who do analysis on equity curves do understand the relationship of the "signal" and the "financial management". They are parts of the same equation that represents the equity curve.

Usually people use families of log curves as well. Check out some of those for more personal incite.
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