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Old Dec 14th, 2009, 02:21 AM   #133
AFJ Garner
 
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: www.tradersplace.net
Posts: 105
Quote:
Quote from Muskoka Joe:


The "markets change" is an excuse for the poor performance of something that was not a true edge to start with. For example a "trend following" strategy that uses a "N" bar breakout or a moving average crossover is NOT an edge. It WILL therefore cease to work when the market stops trending in one direction. Two lines crossing has no relation whatever to character of markets.
Hmm, these sort of techniques seem to work fine for me.
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Old Dec 14th, 2009, 02:46 AM   #134
AFJ Garner
 
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: www.tradersplace.net
Posts: 105
Here is the equity curve from a backtest of a relatively simple N Day breakout system with only a few parameters stretching back almost 40 years. I can not of course guarantee that it will continue to perform that well for the next 40 years.
Attached Images
File Type: png logarithmicequitygraph_p1.png (9.1 KB, 167 views)
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Old Dec 14th, 2009, 03:44 AM   #135
thetrendfollowe
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 315
Quote:
Quote from Muskoka Joe:

The "markets change" is an excuse for the poor performance of something that was not a true edge to start with. For example a "trend following" strategy that uses a "N" bar breakout or a moving average crossover is NOT an edge.
I agree.

Trend following systems have no "true edge" so to speak in terms of their entry. That is why the hit rate on trend following systems is often less than 50%

Trend following systems only make money from their trade management (ie. cutting losses and letting winners run). But there is nothing wrong with that.
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Old Dec 14th, 2009, 07:47 AM   #136
Muskoka Joe
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 82
Quote:
Quote from AFJ Garner:

Hmm, these sort of techniques seem to work fine for me.
Regarding the equity curve posted it is fantastic. Using an N Day breakout it looks very, very substantially different then my N day breakout tests. In fact the 1,000,000% gain dwarfs anything I've ever worked on. Congratulations!
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Old Dec 14th, 2009, 07:57 AM   #137
Muskoka Joe
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 82
Quote:
Quote from thetrendfollowe:

I agree.

Trend following systems have no "true edge" so to speak in terms of their entry. That is why the hit rate on trend following systems is often less than 50%

Trend following systems only make money from their trade management (ie. cutting losses and letting winners run). But there is nothing wrong with that.
============

Also my experience is you can trend follow with substatially better entry techniques then moving average crossovers or N period breakouts; though the equity curve posted would refute that, so far that is my personal research experience. Also in my experience using what I consider better entry techniques allows better exit strategies and that avoids getting crunched in chop as you indicate.

However I never underestimate what is possible in the market. My research may really be that far behind what is possible.
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Old Dec 14th, 2009, 09:17 AM   #138
GreenPlay
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 9
New here, as I've said, with no pre-formed biases. FWIW, here's my take on this this- so far:

Beyond the typical dick-measurin' and other nonsense can hijack or derail serious comments from those with something to offer, here's my own short list: AFJ Garner ("It pays to take care who you listen to," aka Anthony Garner, who wrote A Practical Guide to ETF Trading Systems & started the thread. I also like that he doesn't promote promote promote - seems low-key on that, like Tim Knight over at www.slopeofhope.com). Also, JezLiberty, TSGannGalt (great stuff, foil for Garner, can get snarky, but let it pass- he's worth it, I think), ssb11, Jack Hershey ("My frame of reference is only 50 years of active trading. I am not a person who considered the buy and hold orientation. Instead I have just focused on one thing. I call it "taking the market's offer" and, for me, it is THE measuring stick of how well one can do."), .. there are a few others, kiwi trader, plyka, Muskoka Joe, et al but these don't post much in this thread.

Quote:
Quote from TSGannGalt:

Is this guy on crack? What's his deal with the Hari Krishna vibe and suddenly becoming Mike's shrink? Can anyone actually read his posts? This guy's writing to himself, making jokes? and replies to his own question. (Do we have a new jack hershey??? )

Getting passed his delusional tone... What's interesting is he's trying to achieve some enlightenment and selflessness through trading with his Zen way... but he claims that he wants to trade within his comfort zone and willing to discuss one's particular situation, personal objectives, and psychology.

Can this guy be a multiple alias troll? He seems to know how to use the vBcode well...
"It pays to take care who you listen to" as I mentined in my short list of those I heed (you are on it) was AFGarner's remark about one Sluggo over at

http://www.tradingblox.com/forum/vie...r=asc&start=20

Note that you in my own short list. (Maybe you know something about Jack Hershy that I don't, but he's on it too) As for me, what you see is what you get. I am a new trader, and even newer to this forum. In short, a Noodb, A nobody. A No-man (watchit, Cyclops!). I am not a multiple-alias troll. And I don't know who Ellsworth Toohey is, Mr Mike. Sheesh. Lighten up folks!

TSGG, if you really must know, I'm at LAX right now. Look for a bald guy selling flowers and giving away books with funny pictures in them. Never mind those tics and dart-eyes - it;s all good. Just trying to get enough scratch for one more dime balloon! Can't ya help a brother out? ;-)

No secret identity folks. Move on, nothing to see here ... Have they gone now? Okay then,

Up, up, and away!
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