FORUMS BROKERS SOFTWARE
Home
 
    Forums > Main > Trading > Do markets change? Trend Following.

Old Dec 10th, 2009, 06:39 PM   #97
Trend Following
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Asia
Posts: 742
Quote:
Quote from TSGannGalt:

End of story?
Those (2) depositions posted in this thread are some of the best educational insights any prospective investor could ever possibly read. They show quite clearly how a con can unfold. End of story? Doubtful. Anyone mixed up in the nonsense outlined in those government documents will most likely continue down a wrong path.
    Quote
Old Dec 10th, 2009, 07:14 PM   #98
TSGannGalt
 
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 1,977
Quote:
Quote from Trend Following:

Those (2) depositions posted in this thread are some of the best educational insights any prospective investor could ever possibly read. They show quite clearly how a con can unfold. End of story? Doubtful. Anyone mixed up in the nonsense outlined in those government documents will most likely continue down a wrong path.
Mike...

What's the title of this thread? If you want to... you can start another thread about cons in the OPM industry. If you want to stick to your depositions... then start one about that specifically.

Let's try to stick to the topic... It seems like people are more interested in reading about trading trend-following than the government papers (I was suggested to put you on ignore... but I won't).

PS. I'm not Curtis Faith or any of the Turtles. Why would I buy from Mike and Russell?
    Quote
Old Dec 10th, 2009, 07:52 PM   #99
Trend Following
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Asia
Posts: 742
Quote:
Quote from TSGannGalt:

What's the title of this thread?
Those documents are but one example of "people" as the real issue, not debates about "changing markets." People make decisions. Some make consistently good decisions, some bad. Think about this: Acceleration Capital will at some point in the future be a data point for some noted Ivy League academic. Faith's firm will be held out as one of the "unlucky" ones who did not make it. Acceleration Capital will be used (along with other misguided miscreants) as a basis to argue that trend following doesn't really work once you control for survivorship bias.

As far as "changing markets"... Good systems respond to changing market conditions. If one is constantly tweaking a system to supposedly meet changing market conditions...that is not much of a system.

Also, I can't help but chuckle at this busy body like tendency of yours to supposedly put the thread back on track... especially after rants about discretion and Amaranth.
    Quote
Old Dec 10th, 2009, 10:33 PM   #100
Rimping
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Chiangmai Thailand
Posts: 102
Quote:
Quote from Trend Following:

You promote a man whose firm was ripping off clients only to finally see that firm be barred by the CFTC...and you hold yourself out as a noble protector of newbies? Interesting stance.
Garner just promotes good books and products as far as I understand.
"The Turtle Way" is an outstanding book.
    Quote
Old Dec 11th, 2009, 02:16 AM   #101
TSGannGalt
 
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 1,977
Quote:
Quote from Trend Following:

Those documents are but one example of "people" as the real issue, not debates about "changing markets." People make decisions. Some make consistently good decisions, some bad. Think about this: Acceleration Capital will at some point in the future be a data point for some noted Ivy League academic. Faith's firm will be held out as one of the "unlucky" ones who did not make it. Acceleration Capital will be used (along with other misguided miscreants) as a basis to argue that trend following doesn't really work once you control for survivorship bias.

As far as "changing markets"... Good systems respond to changing market conditions. If one is constantly tweaking a system to supposedly meet changing market conditions...that is not much of a system.

Also, I can't help but chuckle at this busy body like tendency of yours to supposedly put the thread back on track... especially after rants about discretion and Amaranth.
OK. Now that you mention about systems...

Which of the following would be considered a "tweak"?

1. Optimization and implementation of a parameter. For this sake, let's say it's like referenced bar for a Breakout like x in calculating HighestHigh(x).

2. Taking the mean bars of the last 30 swings and applying it on the HighestHigh(x).

3. Crabel like filtering. ORBs filtering signals based Macro chart conditions.

4. Tweaking the models using Greeks... "calibrating" based on the underlying.

5. Windowed Parameter.

6. Out-sample averaging.

... I ask this because the term tweak can mean alot of things. All of the above can be considered a tweak. So before I start some discussion, it would help if you can tell me what your basis / definition of a tweak is.

How about we start there?
    Quote
Old Dec 11th, 2009, 02:31 AM   #102
TSGannGalt
 
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 1,977
Mike, another question... related to tweaks...

What's your stance on Mechanical and Automated Trading System? Should all good systems, in your definition, be able to be automated or not?

For a system to be automated, the datas need to be quantified in some way for the computer apply. It can start from a simple OHLC, Bid/Ask to ranking the significance of the news using semantical analysis. So... if you stand on the automation side, what's your take on Quant. Funds, that are not trend following in nature?

What I'm really asking is.... what do you consider a good system and why?
    Quote
 
Reply
Thread Tools

Forum Jump



   Conduct Rules   Privacy Policy   Sitemap Copyright © 2014, Elite Trader. All rights reserved.   

WHILE YOU'RE HERE, TAKE A MINUTE TO VISIT SOME OF OUR SPONSORS:
Advantage Futures
Futures Trading & Clearing
AMP Global Clearing
Futures and FX Trading
Collective2
Automated Trading Services
CTS
Futures Trading Software
dom993trading.com
NinjaTrader Consulting
eSignal
Trading Software Provider
FXCM
Forex Trading Services
Global Futures
Futures, Options & FX Trading
Interactive Brokers
Pro Gateway to World Markets
JC Trading Group
Direct Access Trading
MB Trading
Direct Access Trading
NinjaTrader
Trading Software Provider
optionshouse
Option Trading & Education
Rithmic
Futures Trade Execution Platform
SpeedTrader
Direct Access Trading
SpreadProfessor
Spread Trading Instruction
thenut-trader.com
FX, Gold, & Stock Signals
TradersStudio
System Building & Backtesting
Tradier
Equity and Options Trading
Trading Technologies
Trading Software Provider