Registered: Mar 2011
04-24-11 10:11 PM
Does anyone here have a consensus about what the consistently "best" markets to trade ACD are?
I myself would say that Soybeans are the best grain market to trade. Over the last couple of years that I have been manually backtesting results, I've only seed about 4 losing months over the entire period, and that is just trading ACD's without filtering with ACD number line or pivot ranges. Pretty impressive. Also, when beans are breaking out well the 2 cent buffer outside the opening range is not necessary to use. Just a breakout outside the first 15 min bar is good enough.
Sugar is nice because you can setup trades with a 35 cent stoploss consistently and therefore don't have to worry about getting killed on stops. C trades tend to work pretty good on Sugar as well.
Out of the indexes, I would say the Russel 2000 contract works better with ACD then both the Emini or the Dow Mini.
Coffee was working well for a while, but has cooled off a lot lately, and you need pretty deep pockets to trade it. (Stop loss, plus 200 pt buffer). The buffer alone has a dollar value of about $650 per contract, let alone the stop.
a 45M breakout ACD on /ZB has been working very well lately. 8am-845am range, 5 tick buffer. I expect it to continue to work in the near future based on the problems in the US monetary system, but beware, in the past this combo of time period and buffer has not produced great results, but lately it has been excellent.
For the near future, I think I am going to start trading Nat Gas using ACD. Oil has gotten to a price level where you are starting to hear news stories about people driving distances to find cheaper fuel, cutting back on trips etc.
It seems reasonable that going forward until Crude cools off, Nat Gas is going to gain at least some popularity relative to crude. Any boy is it volitile. Avoid the 1030am Nat Gas storage report on Thursdays though.
I also think the mother of all good C down trades might be found in Silver at some point in the future. Regardless of the long term outlook for it, Silver is due for a significant and sharp correction very soon.
So these are my thoughts at the moment, feel free to chime in.