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achilles28
Registered: Apr 2005
Posts: 7539 |
05-15-09 04:43 PM
Quote from ElCubano:
wow...thanks for the post.
Apparently, the sheep are so brainwashed simple arithmetic eludes them:
13 Trillion - 2 Trillion = 11 Trillion (when only 2 Trillion was necessary to fix the problem?!).
Scary. Really fucking scary.
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piezoe
Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 4957 |
05-15-09 11:36 PM
Quote from Brendan R:
the demise of the dollar is total nonsense as everyone would go down with it and there is no hedge against it, not even gold.
What would replace the USD? Euros, GBP, JPY? The resulting depression of a dollar destruction game would mean the end of the world as we know it. Back to the age of stone. The world is based on international trade. If the dollar goes, so does world trade, so do all the developped/developping economies. Goodbye cars, refrigerators, friendly neighbours,... This would mean war. Hopefully nonsense.
I guess Roubini is facing the challenge of facetious actors. Making sure he stays in the limelight by upping the ante. Well, at some stage, you make a complete fool of yourself. Roubini, you risk becoming catalogued as the sub 1% scenario forecaster, i.e. forecasting events that stand less than 1% chances of occurring in the next 10 years.
FYI, I believe the dollar will strenghten as the second wave of deflationary pressure is about to hit. As a consequence, I expect wealth destruction effects to overpower any quantitative easing effect. It's not only the pool of dollars that is in circulation that matters, it's also the velocity at which it circulates. Velocity has been decreasing, I believe attempts at reflation are doomed.
You are wrong, of course, but only in the long run. You will be right in the short and intermediate term. However, it won't be long before we see interest rates on treasuries rise, and double digit "real inflation" return. We were already at 12% inflation in early 2009, and we will be back there and higher very soon, in spite of the depressed economy. Have you done any grocery shopping lately?
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piezoe
Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 4957 |
05-15-09 11:40 PM
Quote from ByLoSellHi:
Achilles, Geithner just announced that derivatives such as CDSs should be transacted on a public exchange, just as equities and commodities are, in the future.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...id=alaMtgFAIQoc
The Treasury Department & SEC have stated transparency and reducing the kind of systemic, hidden risk that almost took out the entire financial system (and still might?) as their reason to set up a public, visible exchange.
There is a pushback from trading desks about this.
I think this partially supports your claims (the private party contracts and 30x-50x leverage, or more, actually, and the fact that many of the firms being propped up are probably at least partly being propped up so as to make good on the bets they took - such AIG), but it also detracts from the 'bankers in total control' claim, too - assuming they do start regulating these contracts on public exchanges, exclusively.
The current plan is to trade standardized (whatever that is) CDS's via a regulated exchange, but custom CDS's will be exempt. good luck with that!
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piezoe
Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 4957 |
05-15-09 11:45 PM
Quote from Trader KGB:
Link?
Someone else please help here. What is the guys name that publishes economic data as it used to be computed? (Williams ??) I have the chart and will give you the link as soon as I can find it, if someone else can't find it before I do.
P.S. I believe the latest data out shows it has dropped to about 6% from the earlier peak near 12%.
Found it! It's John Williams' site http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
And i was wrong about the timing we hit those highs in looks like mid 2008.
A brain is a terrible thing to lose.
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gigsup
Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 1109 |
05-15-09 11:50 PM
Quote from piezoe:
You are wrong, of course, but only in the long run. You will be right in the short and intermediate term. However, it won't be long before we see interest rates on treasuries rise, and double digit "real inflation" return. We were already at 12% inflation in early 2009, and we will be back there and higher very soon, in spite of the depressed economy. Have you done any grocery shopping lately?
and that is the great unanswered question: where will rates be on treasuries down the road?
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