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stevesbg
 

Registered: Feb 2009
Posts: 300

 

05-19-09 07:38 AM

I have no idea why the local trolls have stayed away. Perhaps they have been learning something new?

As for your comment about value areas, my experience has been quite different, and although I do trade the value areas as well as many other market profile derived numbers, I am pretty sure that my approach is different from most. Although I am not willing to give the details what I can say is simple.

Index futures markets are very noisy. Most retail traders do not fully appreciate how that noise affects them and their attempts to make money. Rather than go through the tedious math, I will sum it up as follows. No matter what single system a trader develops....no matter how carefully he or she "tunes" and tests their approach, their edge, their indicator blah, blah blah....no matter what...the market is going to cycle in and out of alignment with that strategy.....I don't care how smart a trader is, how much data they test on, how crafty they are with indicators...ITS GOING TO HAPPEN.

So I don't trade single use systems. Instead I monitor a range of data elements and use the principle of confluence. In other words I look for areas to trade where multiple "signals" exist either in the same place or in proximity to each other. Doesn't eliminate the problem, but it does minimize its impact on my P&L.

Have I ever traded with cash?....except for options positions, in our office we trade on margin.

Thanks for your questions.

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stevesbg
 

Registered: Feb 2009
Posts: 300

 

05-19-09 01:53 PM

Okay a quick briefing

First, prior to the pre-market check I calc'd my basic Market Profile numbers as follows;

VAH = 907.50
VAL = 895.50

We expected poor reports today as follows

Building Permits
Housing Starts

Both were below expectation and as a result the market moved as follows;

At 5:21am PST just prior to the release the Globex moved to a high of 912.25. As the data came out the market dropped on selling, testing yesterday's high at 908.75. We saw a pullback to 910.25 and then the primary move down resumed. We took out the VAH at 907.50 and that move is still in progress.

We have a "single" at 904.25 that should stop the move and provide a springboard for a possible retest on the open. If that single does not stop the move down, the pivot at 897 likely will, and below that we have the obvious obstacle (VAL) at 895. At this point it looks like we will once again open "in value"..

Looking at the 60 min $DJX chart we can see that the cash bounced off our lowest support level and trended up all day. It will be interesting to see what happens on the open. check out the last candle and then scan left. You can see that the high of the day in the cash tested the midpoint of the wide range bar way over to the left. This happens quite often.

Best of luck to everyone.

snapshot-41.png
This has been downloaded 243 time(s).

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stevesbg
 

Registered: Feb 2009
Posts: 300

 

05-19-09 01:59 PM

Intraday we can see that open interest is up

snapshot-42.png
This has been downloaded 190 time(s).

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stevesbg
 

Registered: Feb 2009
Posts: 300

 

05-19-09 02:03 PM

and intraday volume is down (below 2.6)

To our eye this indicates that size is "in the market" and that we have a healthy trending process in place.

To sum it up, yesterday the market moved up significantly on lower than average volume and slightly higher than average open interest

snapshot-43.png
This has been downloaded 178 time(s).

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stevesbg
 

Registered: Feb 2009
Posts: 300

 

05-19-09 02:11 PM

On the open we would be looking to trade a test of a value extreme.

We would be watching for strength or weakness in the Dow as evidenced by early readings in the $VOLD and $ADD

Also we would be monitoring the $TICKI watching for evidence of early program execution. To suppport a continuing move up, we would like to see significant size programs hit the tape within the first 10 minutes.

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veggen
 

Registered: Jul 2008
Posts: 346

 

05-19-09 02:16 PM


Quote from stevesbg:

On the open we would be looking to trade a test of a value extreme.

We would be watching for strength or weakness in the Dow as evidenced by early readings in the $VOLD and $ADD

Also we would be monitoring the $TICKI watching for evidence of early program execution. To suppport a continuing move up, we would like to see significant size programs hit the tape within the first 10 minutes.



Thanks for providing all this info, and giving us your view of each tradig day!

One question:
When you mention you will watch the $TICK for evidence of early program execution, does this mean strong values in the $TICK? Like 800+, early in the day?

Thanks again,

veggen

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