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Robert Weinstein
Registered: May 2002
Posts: 3849 |
08-23-11 06:32 AM
I started shorting gold again today. The two highers after a gap up is one of my stronger signals.
No stocks traded today although I looked at a few including COCO, S, HPQ
Decided to hold off on COCO until after earnings, diving deeper into the numbers with S
I made a few bucks with gold but not as much as I wanted. The chart looks like it is going to be the trade of the decade, or at least until next week, whichever comes first
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Robert Weinstein
Registered: May 2002
Posts: 3849 |
08-24-11 06:04 AM
Hello illiquid,
For intraday moves, yes it is pure technicals. Often I don't know more than the symbol and the chart. interday moves I generally have more of an idea, but for just a one night stand I don't really need to know her name. I went long INTC and that was 80% fund and 20% (pulling those numbers out of the air but the fund was more important).
I likely will go long COCO tomorrow as a result of both, but that will be for a $1 target gain, regardless of the time.
Best,
Robert
Quote from illiquid:
Are your fading signals purely technical? I would think that traders fading extended moves would need to have some fundamentals on their side. I can always understand putting on a trade with the technicals on your side (ie buying higher highs, selling lower lows, despite the fundamental consensus), but I would think picking turns w/o a fundamental angle is just that much harder.
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Robert Weinstein
Registered: May 2002
Posts: 3849 |
08-24-11 06:04 AM
Another good day of trading. I shorted gold yesterday and while I left a lot on the table by closing out to early, I did well. I also shorted gold again after the earthquake was hitting the news. After living in Japan I could tell by what the news was saying that it was not that big. I have been keeping away from news related trading unless its a 'gimmie' and this counted as one in my book.
I was going to buy COCO today after getting a long signal but I was too busy with the gold trade. I will likely buy tomorrow if they are still giving it away cheap. The earnings release was bad by any measurement, but it was already priced in. Today was more panic by those that thought they could flip quickly, or by those that finally threw in the towel. I think they will find they dumped at the worst possible time. I will look to options for a hedge though.
I did find the time to short some INTC puts. The yield on INTC is great and the stock is at a big discount. The market was kind enough to rally for the rest of the day after shorting them. its great when a plan starts out on the right path.
My wrists are making slow progress and I am hoping to get back on the path in January of getting that juris doctorate degree I have been working before I am dead
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Robert Weinstein
Registered: May 2002
Posts: 3849 |
08-30-11 10:27 PM
Another pretty good day overall.
While I have cut back on my trading (not much an overbought fader can do in this market). I have found some other worthwhile trades to make.
I been trading a lot more dividend capture trades and now have the software to quickly scan for the best trades. I entered into a covered call trade with DSW to either capture the premium or the dividend.
I bought quite a few GA lotto ticket $7.50 puts on the theory that if they don't pay a declared $3 special dividend the stock will implode. At 20 cents each I might even be ok if they pay it and the dividend buyers run for the exits to quickly.
I wrote a lot of COCO $2 puts about a week ago for the retirement accounts. A lot for those accounts but not a lot overall.
HPQ is still in the dog house for me. Even though its off the lows, its gonna take a while to dig out of this one I fear.
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Robert Weinstein
Registered: May 2002
Posts: 3849 |
08-31-11 03:20 AM
Giant Interactive (GA) and why sometimes buying a lotto ticket can be the right thing to do.
GA is paying a $3 dividend per share as a method to "prove" to the market they are legit. Stupidest thing since Clark Griswold decided to take his family to Vegas for a vacation. I go into the reasons in an article I wrote, but I will sum it up as there are many better ways to reach the goal they want.
I believe there is a chance that they don't pay it and simply fold up the tent. Not really good odds for a trade working out, but considering it should pay off about 20 to one, I will take it.
But the best part is if they do pay the dividend, it appears the stock will crash anyway (of course not likely as bad). yesterday the stock sold off in what appears to be investors selling after it went ex-dividend. The only problem for the uninformed is that when a stock gives out a dividend over 25% the rules are different and the first ex-dividend date doesn't count for anything as far as investors are concerned. the ones that will get the dividend are those that own it on the next ex-dividend date in September
If it can sell off that much on a mistake by what should be a relative few, what will it do when everyone heads for the exits at once?
That brings me to the $7.50 puts I bought today for 0.20 each. I estimate that I have at least a 50/50 chance of breaking even or better if they do pay the dividend.
It appears to be a heads I win, tails I break even (or close).
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Robert Weinstein
Registered: May 2002
Posts: 3849 |
09-09-11 10:27 PM
still long the GA puts. will find out Monday what it looks like.
I made a ticket in IB asking if the dividend was funded or not. I am not holding my breath for a quality answer.
Still short MCD, long COCO
long covered DSW for dividend capture
Have a good weekend
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