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Robert Weinstein
Registered: May 2002
Posts: 3849 |
08-12-11 05:26 AM
Quote from Truff:
Does anybody know where i can find the Demark indicators coded for Ninjatrader? TD-Sequential and TD-Combo.
TIA
I don't but I would believe that it could be coded, especially if one had the code for TS to look at.
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Robert Weinstein
Registered: May 2002
Posts: 3849 |
08-12-11 05:31 AM
Quote from puddles:
here's the monthly GLD with some demark indicators for ya bob.. looks like we're still a month away from a TD9..
Thanks, I apprciate you putting up the chart.
Take a look at the dialy. We have a completed TDCombo 13 last week. We also have it totally blown out of the water (along with some of my capital before I stopped out)
As I write this I am short gold futs based on a 13 with the 2 min and 10 min chart. shorted at 1769.50 and bidding 1763.20 to cover. its currently at 1765.4, wish me luck...
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Robert Weinstein
Registered: May 2002
Posts: 3849 |
08-12-11 05:54 AM
What a great day. It could have been better and it started out on a sour note but ended wonderfully. Yesterday, I opened a new Gold short based on a TDCombo sell signal. It very quickly went against me and even as I entered it I was questioning the price (just under 1800 for the Dec contract). Normally I would like to short an item above a key number not right below but I was somewhat caught in either making the trade or not making it at all. The market was about to close for it's standard 45 minutes between 4 and 5 pm and so I put the trade on shortly before the darkness.
I came back a short time before the opening at 5pm and the GLD stock was trading lower so it appeared all was right in the world. As soon as the futures opened up the GLD spiked higher and we were not in the 1800 plus range. Right where I did not want to be. It moved higher and I faded the move to bring my average above 1800 thinking that on the next retracement to 1800 (yes I know it could have simply gone to 1900 without looking back but the spoos were trading higher in AH so I calculated my odds as being very good) I could either cover or take some off and reshort higher.
I ended up taking some off and leaving some on with the thought that after the run up it had a long way to go down. I have recently been doing well with gold (after a rough start) and knew that the odds favored a lower day today. After several hours of watching it bounce around and hold 1800 I decided to take a dollar or two in gains and call it a night. Knowing that if I held I would be up at least once or more to check the price action. That can make for a very long next day.
Sure enough, I had to kinda laugh when I checked gold prices this morning. Down and down big. I didn't know it at the time but between taking the trade off and waking up the CME raised the margin requirements which likely was the catalyst for the drop.
So I did ok with my gold trade and I received a full nights sleep which lately is about 6 hours. The real big winner of a day maker was when Nic in the chat room called out SODA was in play. I made several trades with it and then made a major move that I have not done in years. I waited until several signals came together and indicated that SODA was way way way oversold and then in three trades I went all in. As in I pushed all my chips in to the middle and said "I call".
The next part was the most crazy for me. Normally I would scalp as the stock moved around and now that the trade is over I wonder if that would have been a better move. I really believe in scaling in and out of trades. Predicting exact price points is generally a fools errand for the most part based on my experience. What made this one different was I fully believed that instead of going for the typical 50-60 cents that I target with my long fades is that I was now going to target $2.00 a share. This was a monster leap in expectations that could easily left me wondering what the hell I was thinking. In fact I almost did just that. it was nerve racking to say the least, as the price more than once reached and then fell below my standard profit target and then moved below my cost basis. I got up and removed myself from my desk and started doing exercise to avoid the monitors. That didn't really help much, but I did get some exercise which I very much need. I didn't quite make it to $2.00 (and actually my offer was for more than $2) but I ended up lowering it to 44.48 after seeing huge amounts of selling coming in at the 44.50 price level. It took a while to eat my offer and move past it. So I was out with about $1.85 per share gain high fiving myself for sticking with the plan and using my experience to greatly increase my gains. I will again be watching SODA in the next couple of days for a long entry like I did with PCS. PCS after falling big time last week saw the option premium spike and I waited until two days after the drop (what I consider the sweet spot in catching falling knifes) to sell some puts. I sold the $9 front month puts for about 40 cents and with any luck they expire worthless next week.
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Robert Weinstein
Registered: May 2002
Posts: 3849 |
08-13-11 01:04 AM
Today was not met with much for trading. ZAGG and gold futures provided the only items I wanted to trade. The spoos had me tempted, but with being told that SPY was on the threshold list and the extremely obvious line of resistance I didn't trade it. What I found somewhat interesting, is that the resistance held. I have found tht when its too obvious, the stops get gunned and usually quite effectively. I am unsure what was different today. Perhaps it was due to being a Friday and too many market participants had already left, or perhaps from the lack of desire to become long this market, the spoos could not break through, much less break and hold. I don't mind missing out from trading the spoos, as it often appears that it is on crack or a trader needs to be on crack to deal with it. With as much money is on the line it is not surprising that it acts the way it does.
Gold treated me well providing most of the gains today. I spent much of the day working on research and signals as I shift from making as many trades as possible, to making as few as possible. So far the shift has been slow but steady.
Have a great weekend, and if you are interested in investing in your retirement account, I am working on electric utilities article that should be out Monday or Tuesday. I am reviewing 12-14 dividend paying companies.
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Robert Weinstein
Registered: May 2002
Posts: 3849 |
08-18-11 09:52 PM
I have really slowed down my trading lately. It is hard to fade overbought stocks (which is 90%+ of what I do) when the market is going down the drain.
To keep me occupied, or as a distraction from getting more done, I have been trading gold mostly to the short side. I think maybe all to the downside now that I give it some thought. As I write this I am short the Dec contract at 1826.70. Gold has plenty of oversold indicators, and well, plenty of bulls out there as well. I did make a little bit scalping it and hopefully, a lot more as it falls from a cliff while I am away from the computer and not able to leave a large amount of the move on the table.
One of my small (thank goodness) holdings, HPQ, keeps tripping and falling. I am more than ready to let this one go except for one thing. HPQ keeps giving me buy signals. At least I own it in my long term holds, so it is not like I turned a trade into an investment.
My other holding that I am watching today and tomorrow is PCS. I wrote $9 puts when it was trading about $9 a share that expire tomorrow. Today's general market sell off didn't hit PCS in the face like so many others. Looks like I will be in good shape and the options will expire worthless.
COCO continues to pop up on my radar. Wow, talk about a massive sell off. It will not be long and it will be cheaper to buy the company than to go to school there.
Casinos sold off hard today after a big stake in MGM was liquidated. I will be looking towards MGM tomorrow for a long entry as I doubt it will remain in single digits for long if it is not going totally out of biz.
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illiquid
Registered: May 2002
Posts: 3613 |
08-18-11 10:18 PM
Quote from Robert Weinstein:
One of my small (thank goodness) holdings, HPQ, keeps tripping and falling. I am more than ready to let this one go except for one thing. HPQ keeps giving me buy signals. At least I own it in my long term holds, so it is not like I turned a trade into an investment.
Are your fading signals purely technical? I would think that traders fading extended moves would need to have some fundamentals on their side. I can always understand putting on a trade with the technicals on your side (ie buying higher highs, selling lower lows, despite the fundamental consensus), but I would think picking turns w/o a fundamental angle is just that much harder.
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