Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 3647

Only 2 degrees of freedom now?
The rosy Guess1 is less plausible now because of the weight of million houses on the subprime trendline.
The Middle Path Guess2 is still possible if the Dow closes up 70 points or more before going below 13,236.

Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 3647

Head and Shoulders.
Beware of the neckline at 13,255, I'm not sure it is still in effect or not, nobody seems to care for it anymore.
Pray that the Fed will do some magic again at Dow 12,876.

Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 3647

Microwaves.
13,381.2305-Microwave V)IVc]1)3.1:1i-13,308.4805-Microwave ii-13,378.6299-Microwave iii-13,159.0703? (?=still unfolding).
Submicrowave iii.v which has fall below the end of Microwave V)IVc]1)2.c:4r may end here and rebound to 13,255 as Submicrowave iv or just continue falling as an extended wave iii.
Submicrowave v should break the 13,121 level to confirm the worst case scenario.

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 337

Nice call on the short term S&P & Dow wave 2 top.
I don't do wave analysis but my target once we broke the rising wedge yesterday was 1435 on ES (based on the fed faux rate cut high low last Friday; a few points below 1438 pivot on S&P but I'm surprised how quickly we got here). Do you think we will rise from here to make another round of highs (i.e. high 1400s or low 1500s) to make a more discernible a-b-c pattern on the wave 2 or do you see us bouncing a little to work off the oversold condition and go straight back down to the medium term low?

Keep it up & thanks.

Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 3647

Subminuette Wave 2 ended?

Thanks JSL_Capital.

Subminuette Wave 3.1:5 has shown 5 microwaves, Minuette Wave V)IVc]1)3.1 might have ended at 13,041.8496 below the new Fed line at 13,076.71. A rebound of Minuette Wave 2 is imminent, to Subminuette 3.1:4 at ~ 13,183, then Minuette Wave 3 will resume the current down episode (minitrend). Minuette Wave .3 may be longer than Minuette Wave .1 which is ~ 337 points long.
Target by the Head and Shoulder is ~ 12,500, near the previous low of 12,445.9199. Intraday Low target by measure move is 13,402.2002.-(14,121.04 - 12,445.9199) = 11,727.0801 or ~ 11,730 for Minor Wave V)IVc]1)3.

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 28

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Quote from JSL_Capital:

Nice call on the short term S&P & Dow wave 2 top.
I don't do wave analysis but my target once we broke the rising wedge yesterday was 1435 on ES (based on the fed faux rate cut high low last Friday; a few points below 1438 pivot on S&P but I'm surprised how quickly we got here). Do you think we will rise from here to make another round of highs (i.e. high 1400s or low 1500s) to make a more discernible a-b-c pattern on the wave 2 or do you see us bouncing a little to work off the oversold condition and go straight back down to the medium term low?

Keep it up & thanks.

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