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mu200411
Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 3659 |
08-13-07 07:30 PM
EWJ: Elliott Wave J
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This thread is started by Elliott Wave newbie. This is not intended for serious technical analysts or traders. Just for fun. The wave counts will be changed frequently as Frost and Prechter wrote in the Elliott Wave Principle, 1978 : we will be the first to discard our predictions if the waves tell us we must.
Wave ONE] began some 6 to 3 million years ago with the genus Homo and ended 1 million years ago with the beginning of ice age when Homo erectus began replacing the other Homos. Sub-epochal Wave THREE] began about 500,000 years ago and ended 100,000 years ago with another ice age. Sub-epochal Wave FIVE] began 30,000 years ago when Homo sapiens sapiens ruled the earth and ended 13000 years ago.
Agricultural Era Wave THREE) began with farming 11000 years ago and ended with a mini ice age from 3000 B.C. to 2000 B.C. which was Era Wave FOUR).
Millennium Wave ONE began with ancient civilization in Egypt and ended when the sea people invaded and the Millennium Wave TWO began with the Greek Dark Age around 1000 B.C. Millennium Wave THREE was the time of Roman Empire from 594 B.C. to 476 A.D. European Dark Age was Millennium Wave FOUR.
Centenary Wave I} 1000 1300 A.D. was the Age of the Popes who lost power during Centenary Wave II} 1300 1400 A.D. The Age of Kings was Centenary Wave III} 1400 1700 A.D. The Kings became less wealthy during Centenary Wave IV} 1700 1776 when England lost America. The Centenary Wave V} may run to 2012  as Elliott predicted or 2070  .
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mu200411
Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 3659 |
08-14-07 06:32 PM
According to Elliott (not Prechter)
Super-cycle wave I] 1783 1835 = 52 years long
Super-cycle wave II] 1835 1857 = 22 years long
Super-cycle wave III] 1857 1929 = 72 years long
Super-cycle wave IV] 1929 1942 = 13 years triangle wave
If Super-cycle wave V] is 70 years long, it will end in 2012 as Elliott predicted.
Only 5 years left to enjoy the market!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Centenary Wave correction will be greater than the corrections after 1835 and 1929
The Japanese Super-cycle wave V] might have been 47 years long, hence the 80% correction of the Nikkei from ~ 39,000 in 1989 to ~ 7600 in 2003
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mu200411
Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 3659 |
08-15-07 05:54 PM
For Elliott, the last Cycle wave I began in 1942, he did not say when it ended.
For Prechter, the last Cycle wave I began in 1932 and Cycle wave III began in 1942. Two extra Cycle waves as compare to those of Elliott. Prechter is now looking for the end of Cycle wave V and the beginning of Grand Super Cycle wave correction which will last for 150 years.
Elliott may be looking for the end of Cycle wave III from above and the beginning of Cycle wave IV which will last for 8 or 16 years.
16 years corrective wave is no big deal as we can see the Nikkei corrective wave from 1989 to 2003 low.
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mu200411
Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 3659 |
08-16-07 04:47 PM
Prechter denounced Elliott's Thirteen Year Triangle on the basis that wave B,C and E (called 2,3 and 5 by Elliot) were "fives," instead of "threes" as all triangle legs must be. He went on to say "unfortunately, Elliott had made up his mind on an irrelevant point outside the Wave principle, namely that 1929-1932 was too short a time period to correct the previous Supercycle".
I would like to suggest the third possible end point of Supercycle Wave IV at June 1949 low ~160 in addition to the second possible end point at April 1942 low ~ 95 and the first possible end point at June 1932 low ~ 42.
My reasoning is that I can count 1932 - 1937 wave as a three, 1937 - 1942 wave would be a three as Prechter like, and 1942 - 1946 and 1946 - 1949 waves looked like threes.
I think Elliott did not choose the third possible end point because he had insufficient data, or to be more precised insufficient time.
These three possible ends of Supercycle Wave IV are important because they will tell us, in fact future us, in 150 years time that Prechter's 150 years Supercycle Wave Correction is wave TWO or FOUR.
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mu200411
Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 3659 |
08-16-07 05:33 PM
Errata:
These three possible ends of Supercycle Wave IV are important because they will tell us, in fact future us, in 150 years time that Prechter's 150 years Supercycle Wave Correction is wave TWO or FOUR.
Should be:
These three possible ends of Supercycle Wave IV are important because they will tell us, in fact, future us, in 150 years time that Prechter's 150 years Grand supercycle Wave Correction is Grand supercycle wave II} or IV} or just the beginning of Millennium Wave ALPHA.
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mu200411
Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 3659 |
08-16-07 08:01 PM
Prechter counted 1932 - 1937 wave as Cycle wave I and 1937 - 1942 wave as Cycle wave II.
This assumption led him to prominence by the "long-term super bull market in stocks" interpretation, October 1982, which in turn led him into trouble with "the bearishness of his forecasts in the time since October 1987 ".
The supposedly Cycle wave V rose from 570.01 low in October 1974 to 2749.64 high in July 1987 or 482% in 5 year which is nearly equal to the 482% rise of the supposedly Cycle wave I which rose for 40.56 low in July 1932 to 195.95 high in March 1937 also in 5 years. The supposedly last Supercycle Wave V is 55 years long (in 1987), a little longer than Supercycle Wave I which is 52 years long.
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