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	Forums ›› Technically Speaking ›› Strategy Trading ›› direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

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nukethewhales31

Registered: Sep 2008
Posts: 738

04-20-09 07:33 PM

screaming scalp me so i did.. just doing what it tells me to do

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nukethewhales31

Registered: Sep 2008
Posts: 738

04-20-09 07:37 PM

revised an old statistical system i use to use ... steve was inquiring about this one what i made most of my account with..

Also what i used to scalp this trade.. first i will post some graphs

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stevegee58

Registered: Feb 2004
Posts: 1866

04-20-09 08:25 PM

Please continue.

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TheRumpledOne

Registered: Aug 2006
Posts: 1106

04-20-09 08:40 PM

*** WORK IN PROGRESS ***

Taking it one step at a time.

Step 3.

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nukethewhales31

Registered: Sep 2008
Posts: 738

04-20-09 10:17 PM

Quote from stevegee58:

Please continue.

yes sir..

ill post some graphs to get to the base of it tho. because understanding it is important as well.

in the graph i posted here we see in the key 1-10.. this is the number of bars in order as posted awhile back

the majority in the market 54% the blue area... as more bars occur consecutively the odds of them occurring is less and less.

Statistically tho we know this will form like this and this graph isnt our goal at finding the edge for this system. but does help us with a basis for the next step.

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nukethewhales31

Registered: Sep 2008
Posts: 738

04-20-09 10:33 PM

now in this graph we make the assumption that the first bar is formed in one direction and the next bar is forming what is its chances to form in the same direction or not in the same direction from open to close.

this bar graph is better to see the % so ill do the rest like this...

notice how the chance actually change after the first bar occurs now the chance that just two bars will form is 56%

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