Registered: May 2002
10-13-12 05:50 AM
Quote from marketsurfer:
Everyone's missing the point-- TA, by definition, is based on past price history/volume with the operative word PAST.
Is anybody arguing this point? Of course TA is based on past info, just like my response to you is based on past information.
The critical difference is how much time has elapsed?
"Price drivers" how is that not based on past info. Are you telling me that there is no pattern (something from the past) to your initiating a long/short/close/flat position based upon your interpretation of your "price drivers".
There has to be some sort of rhyme or reason for you to get in/out of a trade? Can we assume that you try to be consistent with your trading decisions?
In other words, if your"PD's" are lining up so that your normal response would be to take a short, are you going to just do the opposite? Why not?
Isn't it fair to say that your response in the market is based on past (sorry I know you hate that word) experience? Some sort of repeating pattern? If not, then why would you use "PD's" there are no patterns, no past history to base your trading direction on.
Everything (ok 99.9%) that we respond to is past info, what else can it be? We are creatures of habit, patterns are how we interpret the world. Try to make sense of it. Patterns actually help us deal with the future.
To say past info is of no use, seems illogical to me. Imagine you draw two dots on a pc. of paper and each dot represents an airplane and they are both at the same altitude and going 500 mph . You have no other info, would you be able to tell me what is going to happen next? Are they going to collide, go in opposite directions, etc.. What if you had a line that trailed behind the dots showing where they had been, would that be of any help?
Honestly, I don't see how anybody who trades can say that don't believe in repeating patterns.
Whether you use PD, TA, FA, PA and all of the other styles that I don't know about, they all have to be rooted in the belief that on some level, when X happens then the probability of Y happening is greater than the probability of Z happening. It doesn't guarantee an outcome, it suggest one.
Finally, I reserve the right to alter, modify and change my above opinion based upon responses I receive by those who are smarter than I.