Registered: Mar 2010
09-20-12 12:03 PM
I have so many examples in my mind, it is hard for me to reverse my view. I feel I am sturborn.
several weeks ago, I was thinking to buy FSLR 27 calls (FSLR after earning, thrusted almost doubled,obviuosly in the chart it is going up). then one day it dropped 5+points, almost removed all gains after the earning runup, all puts of 25/24/23/22 printed more than 10 folds gain.
those days, everyone here may notice USO. before the drop, the trend is going up, the chart seems to say we are going higher. but it suddenly removed all the runup in months.
the worst is I have other examples, just the opposite. recently I bought some ZLC puts, when it dropped to 5.4 (this is a puulback, late confirmed it), I bought puts of 5 of course just 0.05 cents. I thought it will drop to my EMA. but it refused. my ZLC trade is a loser.
I did a ZLC trade since I did buy some puts of PPHM, when it ranup to 3, I bought some 2.5 put , late I covered it at my EMA 1.8, that is a winner. it doubled+. this PPHM trade encouraged me about ZLC trade.
those things made me feel at loss what to do. I know it is just odd. but still want to improve the odd, do not want to bet blindly. I easily let my holding control what I look and think.
Pullback/reversal really hard to disgingusih, if dip shallow, I kind of think it is a pullback (several daily bars, a little tilt down). if dip hard, I kind of think it is a reversal, often so quick, so hard to catch.
I was stuck with CDE/EGO puts this week, that is why I am early and write posts. GLD/AGQ everynight dropped, then somehow in the opening it jumped back. CDE/EGO puts of 9/21 this week, that made me nervous.
this night silver/gold all dropped good amount, my expectation is silver to 33under, gold to 1750under.