Pro-cyclical currency instruments would normally go northward in bull markets, as prices are breaking more and more supply levels. On the other hand, anti-cyclical currency instruments tend to exhibit a measure of strength only in bear markets, as prices are breaking more and more demand levels. Sometimes a confirmed bias may last longer than one imagines.
EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
Recently it looks as though the EURUSD is not making any decisive directional move, although the current bias is towards the downside. Any possible bullish attempts are not supposed to take the price above the resistance line of 1.3150, whereas the bears could push the price lower towards the support lines of 1.2950 and 1.2900 respectively. For the next several trading days, I would assume a bearish outlook.
USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
The primary trend on this pair has turned bullish lately and it is expected that this scenario would continue to hold. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, and all indicators are in favor of the bulls. For this current outlook to keep on making sense, short-term bearish corrections should not take the price below the support levels of 0.9400 and 0.9350 respectively. Meanwhile, the price could reach the resistance level of 0.9550.
GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
There is a long signal on this instrument and it is currently valid. The indicators on the chart are presently in favor of the bulls, and therefore, there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. Since this signal was generated, the price has moved upwards by over 230 pips, and it could reach some distribution territories at 1.5500 and 1.5550. Nevertheless, some probable bearish threats could pull the price towards the accumulation territories at 1.5300 and 1.5250.
USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
In recent times, the USDJPY has been trading within some defined range, because it has been unable to breach the great supply level at 100.00 (a feat that must be accomplished for the current bullish outlook to survive). It is either the price breaks above the aforementioned supply level or it breaks below the demand level at 98.00 to the downside. Whatever happens as far as these two options are concerned would determine the next price action.
EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
Just like most other JPY pairs, this cross is in some serious equilibrium zones and it is yet to make any significant bullish continuation determination. Momentum indicators still confirm the bullish bias – which is, in fact, still valid. But the oscillators are showing the possibility of the bears having upper hands. One would need to wait until the market showcases further confirmation of its intent, and until then it is better to stay out of this market.
The markets are now at critical levels and thus require tact to handle. Prices are now approach major supply and demand zones. When open orders are smoothed, bulls go against bears and bears go against bulls. This kind of scenario would signal that, should Smart Money exit all their orders, the market would be forced to go southward. Should there be an absence of some bulls to push up the prices, the prices would nosedive. This kind of scenario cannot favor the bulls, since they would be unable to dump their stakes at the optimal market levels; for the prices have gone downwards as a result of a massive sell-off. Thus short orders are smoothed gradually until all the orders are no longer open.
EURUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
The EURUSD moved upwards recently, but it has given up all the gains as a result of the stamina of the Greenback. There is a serious threat to the current bullish outlook: should the price continue to nosedive, the bullish outlook may be eventually rendered invalid. For the bullish outlook not to be rendered invalid, the price must stay constantly above the current support line at 1.3000.
USDCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
Although the present long-term bias on this pair is bearish, there is a serious threat to it, and the price merely needs to move upwards for a few more days for the bias to be rendered ineffectual completely. Nevertheless, as long as the price is below the resistance level of 0.9450, the long-term bearish trend remains sensible. If that resistance level is breached and the price closes above it, then a new bullish signal is generated.
GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bullish
This unique market has been in a bullish mode constantly. However, the northward movement this week so far has been tardy, and that one has nearly been rendered invalid by the recent event in the market. There are mixed signals on the chart – oscillators confirm a change in the trend whereas the momentum indicators are yet to confirm this. As long as the price stays above the accumulation territory at 1.5400, the signal is ‘buy.’
USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
Lately, there was a threat to the bullish outlook, since May 2, 2013; the fundamental facts coming from the markets have made the USD a stronger entity. There is now clear a direction in the market, which means the price is going northwards. Nevertheless, it must be noted that the price is unlikely to go above the supply level at 100.00, since it is a significant level. The bullish activity would not be able to carry the price beyond that level in the next several trading days.
EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
The signal on the EURJPY cross is also a ‘buy’ signal. The cross was moving in some tight range (in which there are serious struggle between the bears and the bulls), right before the price broke upwards. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, but the bullish move would be limited. It is not expected that the price would go beyond the supply zone of 131.00 within the next several trading days.
Interesting things are happening in the markets, especially on JPY pairs. The northward outlook on these pairs has held out longer than what most thought. The USDJPY pair has broken the great supply zone of 100.00 to the upside (the last time the price was above that market zone was April 2009). The real surmise shows that a northward journey would continue to run as long as some think it would end. When most traders think the bias would continue indefinitely, then there would be a reversal. A southwards journey would likewise continue for as long as people hope it would end. Then when people think it would not end soonest, that is when a new bullish phase would begin.
EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
From the recent monthly peak of 1.3242, the price has gradually come down to the present location. Although the bulls struggled desperately to push up the price, they were eventually outmaneuvered by the wily bears. For example, the market has lost all its gains in the recent week. There is a new bearish indication on in the market and one would do well to seek short trades only.
USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
On the USDCHF, the weak bearish trend has been gotten rid of completely. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart – for the indicators now support a bullish outlook. Despite any possible correction that may take place in the next several days, it is advisable to seek only long trades here. Price correction ought not to go below the support level at 0.9400, while the price could eventually reach the resistance level at 0.9600.
GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
As far as the reality on the chart is concerned, this pair is now in a bearish mode. Given the new lease of strength in the Greenback, the pair has been weakened. The only thing that can render this outlook invalid is a scenario in which the price fails to go below the accumulation territory of 1.5400. Should that price territory get broken to the downside, the next target would be 1.5300.
USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
The northward outlook on this pair has held out longer than what most thought. The USDJPY pair has broken the great supply zone of 100.00 to the upside (the last time the price was above that market zone was April 2009). This means a renewed strength in the pair, and the next targets would be the supply zones of 102.00 and 103.00 respectively. Any bearish correction along the way may not drag the price downwards below the demand zone of 100.00
EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
This cross trended very long in a sideways manner. Breaking out of the recent sideways phase, the pair is now caught in a serious buying pressure. Before this happened, there was constant indication that the breakout of the sideways phase would be in favor of the bulls, for the primary bullish trend is still valid. The price is above the demand level at 131.00 and could go on towards the supply level at 131.00.
This article is concluded with the quote below:
“I don’t live and die by every strategy signal that I get.” - Anthony Crudele
The currency markets are in vivid Trend Confirmation Patterns – both bearish and bullish. Recently, prices have become very volatile as they approach major accumulation and distribution territories. But it is expected that those territories would be breached as the markets go in the direction of the overall biases. Thus, market participants are bound to make more gains as they take more risk in the favor of the current biases. We’re naturally inclined to welcome gains and abhor losses, yet losses must be anticipated before gains can come. The less the magnitude of the stake, the less the expected returns and vice versa.
EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
The EURUSD is bearish and it is expected to continue being so, even irrespective of the current volatility and turbulence in the markets. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart (as supported by the indicators). Any short-term rallies ought not to take the price above the resistance line of 1.3000, for the current outlook not to be in jeopardy. Meanwhile, the price could reach the support line of 1.2700 within the next several trading days.
USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
Some resistance levels are acting as a barrier to the bulls’ interest, but those levels would soon be breached to the upside. The bullish scenario continues to be valid, as the indicators as well support it. The ultimate target on this pair is 0.9800, in spite of the hurdles to be overcome. Foreseen bearish attempts would not take the price below the 0.9500, otherwise, there would be a serious threat to the bullish outlook.
GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
The bears are still present here. They are not only present, but they hold sway and in the face of this, any short-term rallies would end up being fake-outs. Normally the short-term rallies are not supposed to push the price upwards beyond the distribution territory at 1.5400. There is a need for the price to go below the market territory at 1.5200, for the bears’ interest to continue. There must be perpetual price position below the aforementioned market territory.
USDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
Northward is the outlook on this popular major, though the price has not moved determinedly upwards in recent times. In spite of the recent volatility in the market, accompanied by a sideway move. One may think the market is indecisive, but one needs to be reminded that that was the condition on the market before the price zones at 100.00 and 102.00 were breached to the upside. The supply zone at 104.00 may soon suffer the same fate.
EURJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
This instrument has not made any significant bearish or bullish move within previous trading days, but the major outlook is bullish and it is expected to be so. In spite of stealth attacks from the bears, the bulls’ have succeeded in preventing the price to be dragged determinedly downwards. Now, it could be safely said that the demand level at 131.50 has been an effective check on the recent bearish attempts. The supply zone at 133.00 is the ultimate target.
This article is concluded with the quote below:
“Many active traders make the mistake of assuming that a winning system for swing trading… needs to be complicated. On the contrary, the best trading strategies are typically the most simple because they can be more easily and consistently followed.” – Deron Wagner
