HOME FORUMS BROKERS SOFTWARE BOOKS OPTIONS ANALYSIS CONTACT US
Your Account  •  Become a Member  •  Help  •  Search    
    Forums ›› Main ›› Trading ›› How Do We Nail the Bottom?  


Post A Reply
    Page 20 of 41:   « First Page   11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19   20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29     Last Page »
HKIB
 

Registered: Sep 2004
Posts: 41

 

10-27-08 10:19 PM

The downtrend resumes for SP500, but not for Dow yet. Dow is the only index for which the downtrend-over sign is still valid after today's close.

    Edit/Delete Quote Complain
netedge
 

Registered: Feb 2005
Posts: 83

 

10-28-08 09:17 PM

Ok, so this afternoon we finally resolved the test of the bottom of October 10th. And we all know how it was resolved. It HELD FIRMLY after a wild ride today. The shorts started covering and the longs began to feel more comfortable and began entering.

Volume on today's rally was impressive. Markets up almost 9%. Two of my 3 bottoming conditions have been met - when the market rallies on bad news this is the 1st part of the signal (see below). The other is a VIX steadying under 50. And the last is a retest and hold above the October 10th low (mission accomplished).

Here's evidence of part 1 in the news today:

Stocks see moderate rebound after sharp selloff
Tuesday October 28, 12:33 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
Stocks rebound but come off highs as weak consumer confidence reading stirs spending worries


NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street took a dose of bad economic news with relative calm Tuesday, rallying even as consumer confidence plunged to its lowest levels in 41 years. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 150 points, leading the major indexes with a gain of more than 1 percent.

The market did pull off its highs after the Conference Board said its index of consumer confidence has fallen to 38 in October, well below the 51 analysts expected. Wall Street is worried that consumers, whose spending drives more than two-thirds of economic growth, will keep pulling back, particularly as the holiday shopping season approaches -- but with a litany of bad economic news this month, many investors expected the index to sag.

Are you feeling better now

    Edit/Delete Quote Complain
stock_trad3r
 

Registered: Jun 2006
Posts: 9988

 

10-28-08 09:20 PM

Consumer confidence is a contrarian indicator:

http://www.socketsite.com/Bloomberg...e%20Graphic.jpg

When it falls suddenly the next bull market usually begins afterward.

    Edit/Delete Quote Complain
MKTrader
 

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 831

 

10-28-08 09:21 PM

You may enjoy the work of Paul Desmond (Lowry Research). He has done a lot of quantitative studies of market bottoms:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comme...ul_desmond.html

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/ma...s/10269355.html



Quote from netedge:

Ok, so this afternoon we finally resolved the test of the bottom of October 10th. And we all know how it was resolved. It HELD FIRMLY after a wild ride today. The shorts started covering and the longs began to feel more comfortable and began entering.

Volume on today's rally was impressive. Markets up almost 9%. Two of my 3 bottoming conditions have been met - when the market rallies on bad news this is the 1st part of the signal (see below). The other is a VIX steadying under 50. And the last is a retest and hold above the October 10th low (mission accomplished).

Here's evidence of part 1 in the news today:

Stocks see moderate rebound after sharp selloff
Tuesday October 28, 12:33 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
Stocks rebound but come off highs as weak consumer confidence reading stirs spending worries


NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street took a dose of bad economic news with relative calm Tuesday, rallying even as consumer confidence plunged to its lowest levels in 41 years. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 150 points, leading the major indexes with a gain of more than 1 percent.

The market did pull off its highs after the Conference Board said its index of consumer confidence has fallen to 38 in October, well below the 51 analysts expected. Wall Street is worried that consumers, whose spending drives more than two-thirds of economic growth, will keep pulling back, particularly as the holiday shopping season approaches -- but with a litany of bad economic news this month, many investors expected the index to sag.

Are you feeling better now

    Edit/Delete Quote Complain
netedge
 

Registered: Feb 2005
Posts: 83

 

10-28-08 10:14 PM

Assuming we have arrived at a (interim?) market bottom the next key step is to begin identifying which of the sectors will take a leadership position in the rebound. Many feel it will be the tech sector.

This will be part of my upcoming research. The other question is - since the foreign markets have been hit worse than the US - will they rebound even more than the US market in a potential rebound?

    Edit/Delete Quote Complain
Susannah
 

Registered: Jul 2005
Posts: 515

 

10-28-08 10:16 PM

Are you all talking a bottom for years or a bottom for months? I have a hard time taking the "for years" view, but I guess it really doesn't matter, just don't let your grip on whatever you buy get too tight and remain nimble.

    Edit/Delete Quote Complain
    Page 20 of 41:   « First Page   11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19   20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29     Last Page »
Post A Reply


Receive an email whenever a new post is added to this thread by subscribing to it.
Rate This Thread:

Forum Jump:
 

 

   Conduct Rules    Privacy Policy Copyright © 2010, Elite Trader. All rights reserved.    
 
WHILE YOU'RE HERE, TAKE A MINUTE TO VISIT SOME OF OUR SPONSORS:
AMP Trading
Futures and FX Trading
Bright Trading
Professional Equities Trading
CitiFX Pro
Forex Trading
Cobra Trading
Direct Access Trading
Cyborg Trading
Gray-Box Trading Tools
CTS
Futures Trading Software
ECHOtrade
Professional Trading Firm
Equity Trading Capital
Equity & Option Training
eSignal
Trading Software Provider
FXCM
Forex Trading
Global Futures
Futures, Options & FX Trading
Interactive Brokers
Pro Gateway to World Markets
JC Trading Group
Direct Access Trading
MadScan
Trading Software Provider
MB Trading
Direct Access Trading
Mirus Futures
Commodity Trading Services
NinjaTrader
Trading Software Provider
NYSE Liffe
Derivatives Exchange
OneChicago
Electronic Futures Exchange
Questrade
Brokerage for Canadian Traders
Rithmic
Futures Trade Execution Platform
SpeedTrader
Direct Access Trading
SpreadProfessor
Spread Trading Instruction
thinkorswim
Direct Access Trading
TickQuest
Trading Software Provider
TradeMaven
Software and Education
TradersStudio
Trading Software Provider
TradeStation
Direct Access Trading
Trading Technologies
Trading Software Provider
Trend Following
Trading Systems Provider
Velocity Futures
Derivatives Trading Services
Zumo
Futures and Options Trading