Registered: Aug 2009
Posts: 570

I doubt it will have any impact...the ECB minutes I mean...

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Quote from atticus:

Long EUR from 67 to 98, stoppage at 44. ECB "minutes" in an hour, but not expected to get my fill there.

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Registered: Aug 2009
Posts: 570

flat in eur, aud. We may have potentially reached a top in all risk currencies. I need more confirmation, but things do not only look extremely stretched on a technical basis. (aud having put in a double top on dailies). I was betting on a last extension on the long side but apparently that did not play out.

I do not think I commit much more to this market today, instead I look to see whether risk off is back on the table after more confirmation.

Registered: Aug 2009
Posts: 570

I am glad I was not managing discretionary positions this past Friday. It has been one of the few days in the quarter when even my algorithmic strategy book lost money. It was just a horrible trading day, lack of commitment, summer liquidity hole, and then the market closed with a sizable rally in eur and aud as well as other pairs. It speaks for itself when even a day after investment bank sell-side strategists and traders are scrambling for explanations of what was going on.

I highly dislike the environment markets got themselves into: On one hand I am very bearish eur and bullish usd and especially yen, but then the risk of ECB intervention always looms in Europe and we are really not that far from BOJ scare levels in usdjpy.

I was hoping for a partial rebound in eur and aud in order to short both pairs but never got the chance. Thus, I missed the sell off before we rallied into the close. Maybe there will be more follow through to the upside early Monday, so let's see whether some good sell opportunities emerge. I look to again build a position that has the potential to be 200-300 pips in the money because it really calms the nerves (and provides sufficient cushion) when Mr. Draghi is gonna lie to the world next time (well last time the cushion of 250 pips was clearly not sufficient).

I had one of my worst trading weeks this years, on the discretionary side I merely eked out around 40 pips of my standard position size (which is around 4-5 mio USD equivalent notional for the time being). Hardly anything to talk about.

Registered: Aug 2009
Posts: 570

Went long Eur at 1.23605. Will we finally break out of this boring range to the upside? First some heavy sell orders need to be chewed through in the 1.2380 range. What worries me a bit is that every last sell-side fx desk is publishing long eur recommendations. Should we really break out then I would expect to see some swift short covering of euro shorts to propel eur to the next higher levels. Time will tell...

stop set at 1.2345

Registered: Aug 2009
Posts: 570

Closing long eur at 1.2470 for 110 pip gain. No nonsense not much done over the past couple days except today when the breakout opportunity was more than obvious.

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Quote from amazingIndustry:

Went long Eur at 1.23605. Will we finally break out of this boring range to the upside? First some heavy sell orders need to be chewed through in the 1.2380 range. What worries me a bit is that every last sell-side fx desk is publishing long eur recommendations. Should we really break out then I would expect to see some swift short covering of euro shorts to propel eur to the next higher levels. Time will tell...

stop set at 1.2345

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Registered: Aug 2009
Posts: 570

Sorry guys but I simply do not find the time to keep this thread alive with frequent posts. It was originally intended for my own future reference, however, as I posted before I did not extract much value from posting trades on public forums.

I may still post my views or other fx related comments but it will be infrequent, as I posted at the very beginning it was an experiment (to run a journal) and to be honest I did not extract much value from this. I guess the main reason is that its hard to find others to discuss and exchange ideas on an equal footing. I admit I can be a total arse and I am very opinionated and overly critical and have a huge aversion about bullshit, but I think I am an extremely truthful and honest person. This does not sit right with most people, I understand that. I have a few buddies I know for years and worked with in past jobs and the dialogue with them is awesome and adds values and they take the liberty to challenge me and I appreciate it.

Call me arrogant, but so far I have seen less than a handful users on this board whose economic views and market insight I put any value in. I occasionally blow off steam and act stupid when I just let things slide after the job is done but when I work I work, when I talk about this business I am trying to be forthright and honest, I just dont think this can be said of 99.5% of users here. I understand full well that this whole forum is perused by some as just a medium to bs or troll, I understand it, to be honest I almost take it as such by now.

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