Registered: Feb 2008
07-02-12 03:01 PM
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Exist the following News:
El Nino Rains are No Guarantee for Soybeans
OMAHA (DTN) -- The U.S. soybean crop enters the start of its blooming and pod-setting phase with significant concerns about hot, dry weather in large portions of the Midwest.
Soybean plants are stressed and crop conditions are the lowest in 10 years after declining for the last three weeks during June.
Despite this situation, trade sentiment over which crop -- corn or soybeans -- is in the most trouble entering summer is overwhelmingly on the side of corn. That's because corn is going through its one and only flowering and pollination phase, whereas soybeans have their main flowering stage later in the season. Soybeans can go through several flowering sequences depending on weather conditions.
There's another reason for a somewhat lower level of concern for soybeans compared to corn. A developing El Nino temperature and wind pattern in the Pacific Ocean could bring rain into the Midwest in time to help soybean plants produce a decent crop, even with the weather difficulties of this season's late spring and early summer.
El Nino describes the equatorial Pacific temperatures being above normal for a sustained period of time. The barometric pattern during an El Nino features sustained subtropical jet stream winds blowing west to east, and brings above-average precipitation into the central U.S.
The Pacific temperature trend is turning warmer, after more than two years of El Nino's counterpart, La Nina, being in effect.
Will El Nino development actually offer substantial relief for the driest areas of the Midwest? Telvent DTN senior ag meteorologist Mike Palmerino isn't so sure it will.
"I don't think that El Nino bails out the Eastern Corn Belt," Palmerino said. "Actually, research done on El Ninos during summertime shows a tendency for drier conditions in the Midwest, so El Nino does not seem likely to offer much of a pattern change for the Eastern Corn Belt."
South Dakota state climatologist Dennis Todey is also not on board with the idea that El Nino-related rains will move in during late summer to turn the dryness situation around. "I don't look for El Nino patterns to show up on time to help things out. It looks more like fallSeptember into October," he said. "And right now this El Nino does not look like a very strong one, so that is not a big winner for us."
For Nebraska state climatologist Al Dutcher, a benefit of wind patterns from an El Nino would be to help the typical late-summer monsoon rains have a greater moisture supply.
"El Nino could help form a tropical connection to feed monsoonal moisture into the Southwest, and then train east into the Rockies and Plains," Dutcher said. "We need to hope for a rapid evolution of El Nino like we saw with La Nina the last couple years."
Such uncertainty is bound to keep soybean prices in a bullish tone regarding crop weather unless and until El Nino rains -- or any kind of rain, for that matter -- show up with any consistency, said DTN senior analyst Darin Newsom.
"The key to soybeans, much like corn, remains concern over what damage is being done to the crop at a time when crop production had little margin for error," Newsom said. "Unlike corn, though, there is little USDA is going to be able to do in regards to number 'adjustments' to keep domestic supplies from tightening to alarming levels if the weather doesn't change."
Bryce Anderson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Posted at 2:13PM CDT 06/29/12 by Bryce Anderson