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nukethewhales31

Registered: Sep 2008
Posts: 692

01-06-09 04:42 PM

dropping order more than 50 pips away from entrance statistically extremely low it will come bar during this bar.

i was hoping one of these would come up notice how because we set a pending order the price has to move in such a way it has to come to us for us to enter .. we dont chase price price was moving up but i dont go price is moved up so many pips ill reverse my order and profit i stay away from that... as that leads to losses. if price had come to us with bias it would have fallen through the two points coming to use then moving through the TP to create its extension in search for value.

entrance was never hit .. trade was never initiated ... so we wait and waiting is 99% of the game.

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nukethewhales31

Registered: Sep 2008
Posts: 692

01-06-09 04:45 PM

Quote from jetbird:

What criteria do you use to determine which bars to use your setup on?

thanks

20 ema and look two time periods up like the if you trade hourly use the week one or the other i like the 20 ema because more bars form directionally in favor of the direction of the 20 ema

i apply this to all bars as long as its bias can be determined from either... if a candle sits at the 20 ema and the weekly open = close no bias.

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nukethewhales31

Registered: Sep 2008
Posts: 692

01-06-09 04:52 PM

Quote from vandalrpm:

What resources would you recommend for learning about statistical trading (books/websites)?

i dunno i use my college statistics book. ive looked up and read alot on Statistical trading...but nothing is done like this ... people tend to make things harder then it is... or not hard enough lol

Is the 20 ema that you use to determine bias based on the close?

yes

Have you ever had a look at TRO’s buyzone stuff?

yes TRO is a smart man while his buy zone says things are fixed at 4 to 5 i believe in using stats over so many bars to determine this stuff and i believe he goes in both directions which leads to whipsawing getting stopped alot. theres more to it.

Are you just using the OHLC for calculations, or are you looking at tick data to find the entry/stop loss/target?

OHLC ...no tick

I just want to say thanks and this topic looks really interesting.

it works well im glad you like it if you have any questions feel free to ask.

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nukethewhales31

Registered: Sep 2008
Posts: 692

01-06-09 05:38 PM

ok determining your points exactly as i do it.

TAKE PROFIT
STOP
ENTRANCE
N

N being the number of bars to use to determine your rules.

lets start with N.

N- on calmer vehicles i use 21 then 20 period ema +1 bar on more volatile vehicles i use 41 a 40 period ema +1 so N is figured in formula like this N=1+chosen ema

its best to trade calmer vehicles with this technique and stick to the 20 ema.

Entrance/TP- over the Past N number of bars we write distances from open in a excel sheet if H = L distance or near each other = high wave or spin top this is not counted add one more bar to make N without these candles as they are rarely to occur.
take the longest shortest distance from open and the shortest highest distance from open the longest shortest distance from open +1 point = entrance and the shortest longest distance -1 point = Take profit.
the longest shortest distance from open + 1 applied in the opposite direction from open of the trade = stop.

this will give you a market predefined Risk:reward or placing the trade on the next bar.

update this info every bar.

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nukethewhales31

Registered: Sep 2008
Posts: 692

01-06-09 06:31 PM

so lets look at the current eur/usd chart

bar short long
21 .5 36
20 3.3 64
19 5.6 25
18 8.3 36
17 .4 54
16 3.1 22
15 3.1 33
14 1.6 20
13 83
14.5

12 .1 56.5
11 4.3 39.2
10 90
28.6
9 2 70
8 7 69
7 0 66
6 10 54
5 30
28.6
4 67
14
3 .4 51
2 59
30.4
1 1.3 74

LSD= 7 DFO
SLD = 14 DFO
n = 21 bars

entrance= 8 DFO
stop = open
take prof = 14 DFO
MDRR= 4:3
%tile accurate = 19/21 or 90.48%
POT= N trades 114
LOT= N trades 16
NPOT=N trades 98

LSD= longest shortest distance
SLD=Shortest Longest distance
N= period of calc bars
MDRR= market defined risk reward
POT=Profit over term
LOT= loss over term
NPOT= Net POT

next bars trade
open +8 entrance
open + 14 TP
open stop
expected success rate = 90.48%

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nukethewhales31

Registered: Sep 2008
Posts: 692

01-06-09 06:33 PM

open to questions...

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