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Nym
 

Registered: May 2012
Posts: 117

 

08-14-12 05:47 PM


Quote from cdcaveman:

Umm.. I'd look at the implied vols of the options and look at the historic/realized volatility.. Compare them.. i don't know what your time frame is on the trade.. But generally speeaking i try to situation myself into a position that i can be wrong about timing and wrong about direction and it not cost me that much... Call ratio backspreads... If you wanna be long on something.. A little otm centered butterfly makes the trade cheaper and more profitable on a drift up... What your trading with options is the implied against the future realized volatility... my thoughts are that once Us wakes up to our problems the bonds over in euro are going to go up... Maybe a flight from the dollar etc.. But who knows when... All kinds of poeple have got caught up in trying to short us tresuries.. Disperse your exposure over the longest period of time considering the risk/reward.... IE your better off betting smaller amounts over time on higher leveraged trades then tying up a bunch of money in one trade...



Well... BTP are volatile like hell positively correlated with spanish bonds and negatively correlated with germans.

Interest rate does not look like influence them at a first look.

Do you have any link where I can learn a bit more?

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cdcaveman
 

Registered: Aug 2011
Posts: 3514

 

08-14-12 06:24 PM


Quote from Nym:

Well... BTP are volatile like hell positively correlated with spanish bonds and negatively correlated with germans.

Interest rate does not look like influence them at a first look.

Do you have any link where I can learn a bit more?



so your talking about pairs trading? i'm reading this book right now... pairs trading - Quantitative Methods and Analysis..

i'm wanting to trade options on futures.. i've traded options for about a yeear..

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Martinghoul
 

Registered: Jan 2009
Posts: 5641

 

08-14-12 08:46 PM

Good god, I just couldn't stand this any more...

No, there are no options on BTPS and OAT futures. People who want to hedge these positions buy/sell cash BTPS and OAT.

The further you go in the credit spectrum, the less the trade will have to do with interest rates. That means that Euribors (apart from being a sh1t hedge for a bond position to begin with) are going to be a worse hedge for BTPS than for OAT.

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Nym
 

Registered: May 2012
Posts: 117

 

08-14-12 10:45 PM

tnx martinghoul, so you are saying that there is not a decent hedge for BTP and OAT.

Are they a savage land?

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Martinghoul
 

Registered: Jan 2009
Posts: 5641

 

08-15-12 08:33 AM


Quote from Nym:
tnx martinghoul, so you are saying that there is not a decent hedge for BTP and OAT.

Are they a savage land?


Well, there's all sorts of proxy hedges that you can imagine... For example, some people (not I) would say that if you buy BTPS and sell EURUSD, you should be fine. Important thing to realize is that, just like with any other type of risk, the only hedge is to unwind it. Everything else is a more or less imperfect approximation.

Question you have to ask yourself is what exactly are you trying to hedge and then think about the best way to deal with that exposure.

And yes, the world of European peripheral bonds is a savage land. France and the other "soft core" are perfectly fine, at the moment, so, for the moment at least, OATs behave like Bunds.

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