Registered: Aug 2012
08-29-12 10:00 PM
If you're in a house that is on fire, and the surrounding area is also on fire, air drops of water and buckets would save your life. If you're in the burning house and the surrounding area is put out, you can walk outside of the house and battle the flame from both inside and out.
In my thinking Bernanke will not need to implement QE3 so long as Draghi puts forth a decent bond plan for the Eurozone.
Our current monetary policy is a time-buying temporary fix, this has been agreed upon by all parties both for and against further stimulus.
Given the fact that our (U.S.) economic outlook is slowly but surely improving on its own, and if all things were the same as they are now but Europe was in a healthier state, another round (and most likely previous rounds) of QE would be out of the question entirely.
This being what it is, the U.S. is still afloat; albiet the tide is low. If the tide were to rise, or if it was set up to rise, we'd be in the clear.
I think the fact that neither Draghi nor Lagarde see it as important to be at Jackson Hole this year has significant political implications in that they have deemed other dates more pertinent. Bernanke speaks the 31st, he will say "we're going to wait" in some vague and usually articulate form of verbage.
The IMF chief and ECB chiefs have spoken, focus on the Euro, not the US, to me this is the clear message displayed on all fronts right now.