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Martinghoul
 

Registered: Jan 2009
Posts: 5641

 

09-01-12 01:48 PM


Quote from foo:
So are you saying most opportunities are changes in perception on where rates may head or, maybe where the economy is heading....great thread...looking forward to this discussion.


Yes, that's right... There's also a new dimension that's been somewhat key after the financial crisis, but isn't too important right now. Specifically, Eurodollar prices also incorporate a proxy measure of the health and liquidity of the banking system, i.e. the LIBOR-OIS spread. There are a few other nuances, such as "the turn", etc.

P.S.: In my previous post, I meant to write "payoffs", not "playoffs". Stupid spellchecker.

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comintel
 

Registered: Jun 2008
Posts: 1076

 

09-01-12 09:54 PM

Obviously most interest rates are extremely suppressed right now (with the exception of some European ones), as well as biased by central bank interventions, so we have the potential for truly enormous moves. I believe we will see them some time in coming years.

Spreads are a good way to position for these.

For example, one can even sell volatility using option spreads with protection, but add cheap extra wings so that that the position would actually make a lot of money on a really large move.

Of course, there is a middle ground where it would lose money, but the overall position supposes a bimodal (or trimodal) distribution, or fat tails if you will.

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