jack hershey
Registered: Feb 2003
Posts: 7373 |
08-28-12 09:24 PM
Quote from Grandluxe:
Trading volume at 5-year low.
By Hibah Yousuf @CNNMoneyInvest
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- August is always a quiet month on Wall Street as traders escape to catch some rays during the final days of the summer, but this year's lull is more pronounced than usual.
Trading volume hasn't been this low since September 2007, with a daily average of fewer than 3.3 billion shares exchanging hands so far this month. And trading volume is down more than 30%, compared with the average August over the past five years.
Trading volume has been trending lower since the height of the financial crisis, creating a new dynamic that investors are still trying to adjust to.
For starters, the market has virtually lost a generation of investors.
"Individual investors don't want much to do with stocks," said Detrick, pointing out that money has been bleeding out of stock mutual funds.
But even still, volumes aren't likely return to the financial crisis levels anytime soon.
A majority of respondents to a recent Credit Suisse survey said it will take 2-5 years, or even longer, for volumes to recover. And nearly half said macro risks -- Europe's debt crisis, the U.S. fiscal cliff and deficit, and potential recessions -- need to be resolved before investors are willing to step back in with conviction. That's a tall order.
http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/22/inv...?source=cnn_bin
Trading volume has slumped to the lowest level since September 2007, with a daily average of fewer than 3.3 billion shares exchanging hands so far this month.
Hibah Yousuf is not a very good quantifier not qualifier.
The graph is evidence of his quantifying limitations.
His annotations show the limits of his qualifying events of the market.
Where the chart able to make comparisons over time, it would show three trends and what is now pending for the future of this Depression.
The first trend that shows is a climax run. An end of a trend is marked by excessive high volume as its leading indicator.
A non dominant short followed and failed. This was the familiar Failure to Break Out phenomena part of the chart.
There was no resumption of a trending long to speak of. the volume shows this attempted resumption nowadays as the long sentiment events come into play for decision making. Typically, near the end of this exhaustion, the remaining tests are all failures. No volume passing signals will arrive until the moment of the end of the trend.
This makes the final phase of the long term aspect of the Depression immenant. Years back (for your reference) I posted at year end the moves for the coming year as to time and market level.
Here years are involved as indicated by the time scale chosen.
Mostly anyone can decribe the last and final move of a Depression. Use other prior examples, for instance.
To appreciate the more subtle aspects of what is coming (volumewise) use an FOMC planned announcement and stretch it out over 10 to 12 years.
When I have called FOMC's over the years, here. I have always incuded the small prior P,V event before the announcement. (it is usally what puts a lot of people on the wrong side of the market prior to the "news" (all known in advance). Then the three swings occur which end the overall event. After that the market returns to the event prior sentiment and strengths.
today, the small prior P, V event is on the record.
The "equivalent news" announcement is coming as an election in a time of crisis. My understanding is that the event will happen before November and it will be formalized as stale news at election time.
This is where the Volume takes off and the last "long term short sentiment sets in". this is dominant move 1. The non dominant move 2 will be a long sentiment..
Then after the election in 2016, the third move will begin as a long term short dominant sentiment.
If you have kids in the 6yo range, then they start college (if you can still send them) at the end of the thrid move of the last leg of this Depression.
It is probably a good idea to not watch CNN or any of its pronosticators.
Sorry to interrupt the light weight posting in this thread.
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