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atticus
 

Registered: Mar 2007
Posts: 12633

 

07-27-12 05:15 PM


Quote from hajimow:

Market is on fire and FB is tumbling so bad. You need $250 margin to sell one naked Call 26 for August 17. The gain is 10% 3 weeks. No way FB can climb up to 26. As always there is a risk. DYODD



I'll bet you $1,000 that we touch $26, using delta*2 as the touch probability as the odds you lay. Deal?

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hajimow
 

Registered: Mar 2004
Posts: 2659

 

07-27-12 05:47 PM


Quote from atticus:

I'll bet you $1,000 that we touch $26, using delta*2 as the touch probability as the odds you lay. Deal?




Let's bet with no money. I will call you a legend if FB closes above 26 on August option expiry date. I sold lots of 27 and 28 calls expiring today. I sold them at 1.5 and 2.2 just a few days ago. I have also sold 26 Call August for 3.2 and then it went to 3.8 but I kept my cool and did not tap out. I am selling more and more of FB naked call 26 today. FB tends to gravitate towards 24 or 23 today. So far 24 looks higher possibility. Just because of option.

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hajimow
 

Registered: Mar 2004
Posts: 2659

 

07-27-12 05:50 PM


Quote from cactiman:

A lot of risk for $25 less commissions? You could tune in next week and watch FB short squeeze back up to 27!
FB seems to want to be above $23 so far, after all the bad news is already out.
So an alternative trade might be to Sell an August 23/22 Bull Put Spread for a $35 credit, with a Max Loss of $65.
If FB closes at 23 or above on August 17th you'd make +53.85%.

But I'm not doing either trade.
Will just continue praying for my Iron Condors...



People are buying FB now just for short squeeze reason. That happened when it bounced back from 22 to 24. It is over. Your trade idea is also good but I always sell naked and don't buy. I know it is not a good way of trading. I am more worried of your $20 part of your butterfly but I still believe you should be ok.

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hajimow
 

Registered: Mar 2004
Posts: 2659

 

07-27-12 05:51 PM

I am also cashing out my hefty profit on YHOO and shorting SPY and GRPN.

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