 |
?
You do not have permission to vote on this poll. |
| Break out to the top |
   |
7 |
28.00% |
| Break out to the bottom |
   |
6 |
24.00% |
| You drew those lines wrong, idiot |
   |
8 |
32.00% |
| I don't know |
   |
4 |
16.00% |
| Total: |
25 votes |
100% |
|
FreakofNature
Registered: Jun 2011
Posts: 1059 |
07-14-12 07:44 PM
Quote from southbeach4me:
For a true read of where its headed you have to pay attention to the corporate earnings results(especially forward guidance) coming out next week. This will dictate whether the market breaks out to the upside or downside.....
Isn't it better to read price rather than news?
How many times have we seen crap reports but bullish interpretation by the market because of higher chances of fed stimulus?
Im done reading the news to be perfectly honest with you.
|
| |
|
Edit/Delete • Quote • Complain |
1a2b3cppp
Registered: Sep 2008
Posts: 2545 |
07-14-12 07:52 PM
Quote from FreakofNature:
How do you trade ? Because everything you speak of regarding a chart is full of uncertainty, so I'm genuinely curious as to when do you actually feel confident on direction, if at all.
I never feel confident on direction. I trade as if the market were random. It may not be random, but I cannot predict it.
If I could predict direction I would just open a position in the correct direction with my entire account.
Instead, I trade the S&P long and short (SPY and SH), sometimes at the same time. I average into positions going against me. I use SH because it lets me short SPY without paying interest. I manage risk so I don't blow out. I have a lot of patience and don't care about drawdown. Last year at one point I was drawn down around $60k but didn't really care because I knew I wasn't going to blow my account and knew the S&P would eventually turn around. It ended up being a $40k winning trade with dividends from the SPY and profits from SH positions in the meantime. It just gets boring sometimes, waiting weeks/months with an open position for something to happen. I posted my totals every day in my journal thread. I still do. Here's a chart of my currently open position. As you can see, not much has happened in the 3 months it has been open. Sometimes price doesn't move much:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attac...&postid=3572612
My edge is the instrument I trade (S&P), my patience, money/risk management, and the pseudoscience I use to choose entries. I usually buy when price goes down and sell when it's going up. This is after a long history of buying tops and selling bottoms when I was trying to predict price.
I make significantly less than I could make if I could predict direction, but this is the only way I can be consistenly profitable.
|
| |
|
Edit/Delete • Quote • Complain |
FreakofNature
Registered: Jun 2011
Posts: 1059 |
07-14-12 07:58 PM
Quote from 1a2b3cppp:
I never feel confident on direction. I trade as if the market were random. It may not be random, but I cannot predict it.
If I could predict direction I would just open a position in the correct direction with my entire account.
Instead, I trade the S&P long and short (SPY and SH), sometimes at the same time. I average into positions going against me. I use SH because it lets me short SPY without paying interest. I manage risk so I don't blow out. I have a lot of patience and don't care about drawdown. Last year at one point I was drawn down around $60k but didn't really care because I knew I wasn't going to blow my account and knew the S&P would eventually turn around. It ended up being a $40k winning trade with dividends from the SPY and profits from SH positions in the meantime. It just gets boring sometimes, waiting weeks/months with an open position for something to happen. I posted my totals every day in my journal thread. I still do. Here's a chart of my currently open position. As you can see, not much has happened in the 3 months it has been open. Sometimes price doesn't move much:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attac...&postid=3572612
My edge is the instrument I trade (S&P), my patience, money/risk management, and the pseudoscience I use to choose entries. I usually buy when price goes down and sell when it's going up. This is after a long history of buying tops and selling bottoms when I was trying to predict price.
I make significantly less than I could make if I could predict direction, but this is the only way I can be consistenly profitable.
Ya I sure remember, didnt we talk about this via PMs cause I did the same with SPY in 2011, I think it was you that sent me a PM about what I was doing.
EDIT: Just checked PM, it was you indeed 
|
| |
|
Edit/Delete • Quote • Complain |
1a2b3cppp
Registered: Sep 2008
Posts: 2545 |
07-14-12 08:02 PM
Quote from FreakofNature:
Ya I sure remember, didnt we talk about this via PMs cause I did the same with SPY in 2011, I think it was you that sent me a PM about what I was doing.
EDIT: Just checked PM, it was you indeed
|
| |
|
Edit/Delete • Quote • Complain |
Wide Tailz
Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 1519 |
07-15-12 01:17 AM
Quote from TIKITRADER:
bump and really interested in this if anyone would like to define what they feel is a breakout.
The candle starts to jump up and down, then it just stays up. Then the next one appears and explodes up.
It's like a cyclist dropping gears and pedaling harder, at the start of a big hill. The candle starts pedaling harder. If you pay attention to the mood of the candle, you can see it.
|
| |
|
Edit/Delete • Quote • Complain |
| Receive
an email whenever a new post is added to this thread by subscribing
to it. |
|
|
|
|
