Registered: Feb 2011
07-14-12 02:51 AM
I have a small short on AMZN, althoug don't have a strong view on the earnings.
Europe and FX will be a headwind, and retailtracker data has been a little on the weak side, so probably a negative bias going into earnings.
Although its a great company I think the street gives them too much credit for the whole secular growth story in e-commerce. They've been growing quickly because they've been cutting prices. Profits are basically non existant. How do you value growth based on such a scenario? David Einhorn basically raised the same question a few weeks ago. It will always be difficult for them to achieve substantial profitability in highly price sensitive online shopping environment.
On top of that, they will face headwinds with expansion of sales tax on online transactions. Their traditional media business risks disintermediation with the expansion of the mobile channel and should be valued at a lower multiple.