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bone
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Registered: Apr 2002
Posts: 4338

 

10-23-12 04:53 PM

The biggest fault I see with "fundamental analysis" is that the trader knows far less about what true, legitimate fundamentals are driving that particular market and that chosen point in time - and they fade a big move. Same goes for "seasonals". For strange reasons, the fundamentalists that fade the market tend to take alot of pain and then justify the torment by lamenting that the fundamentals don't justify the pricing. And the longer that the market trades at that "wrong" price, the more the rest of the market accepts that new price level as fair.

Prices that are not perceived as "fair" by the deep pockets are always very quickly adjusted.

The biggest fault I see with "technical analysis" is the trader's study time frame interval selection: 1. The trader is using the wrong time interval, 2. The trader is not using multiple time intervals, and 3. the trader is using a time interval that is simply not compatible with his pain tolerance and his trading style and his holding period.

Finally, most traders that I meet and take on as clients and who tell me that they trade with the trend are mistaken. They are not trading with the trend. Easy to say, harder to do correctly and consistently.

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IeatGoldmanSnax
 

Registered: Jul 2012
Posts: 95

 

12-22-12 03:45 PM


Quote from bone:

Duplicative technical indicators of the same species are no good. In other words, as one example IMHO you do not want multiple oscillators. If you can design a system that provides trade entry confirmation using T/A's that sample differently and apply a genuinely different kind of study ( like, for example, a moving average cross and weekly pivot points ) then you will be better off for it.

Patterns and T/A work fine as well. Use confirmation that is truly different than your baseline screening methodology.

Occam's Razor applies here.



This is an excellent post

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