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Old Nov 11th, 2007, 10:24 PM   #1
pandabear
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 47
Being a software engineer by profession and an avid trader, I believe automated trader is the holy grail.

Considering this I have been working on trading systems for a while but haven't been able to create a good intraday trading system (mechanical).

So recently I am considering a neural system would be a better approach to take.

So I guess what I want to ask is the following:

1. Do consistently profitable mechanical trading systems exists? (I am sure they do but does anyone here run one?)
2. What more profitable for the longer term? Mechanical or a neural system?

Finally, I think I am in grave need of mentor ship from someone who has or does develop a mechanical/neural trading system on a ongoing basis. What I offer in return is someone whose passionate about the financial markets and someone whose known to offer a different but valid point of view every know and then.

Thanks
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Old Nov 12th, 2007, 08:08 PM   #2
MarkBrown
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: www.markbrown.com
Posts: 1,007
mechanical is better - i just know it is cant tell you why - cause i dont want to set here and type that much. mb

anyway you are at the fork, pick the wrong way and its a long haul back, in fact most people i know never make it back.
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Old Nov 12th, 2007, 08:21 PM   #3
rcanfiel
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,173
Quote:
Quote from pandabear:

Being a software engineer by profession and an avid trader, I believe automated trader is the holy grail.

Considering this I have been working on trading systems for a while but haven't been able to create a good intraday trading system (mechanical).

So recently I am considering a neural system would be a better approach to take.

So I guess what I want to ask is the following:

1. Do consistently profitable mechanical trading systems exists? (I am sure they do but does anyone here run one?)
2. What more profitable for the longer term? Mechanical or a neural system?


Finally, I think I am in grave need of mentor ship from someone who has or does develop a mechanical/neural trading system on a ongoing basis. What I offer in return is someone whose passionate about the financial markets and someone whose known to offer a different but valid point of view every know and then.

Thanks
Automated trading is simply a manner of automating a bad strategy, so you can lose money more rapidly. Neural trading is a manner of forming a Rube Goldberg machine that somehow almost never works in the real world. Mechanical trading means nothing unless you have a serious edge.

Other than that...
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Old Nov 12th, 2007, 08:24 PM   #4
MarkBrown
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: www.markbrown.com
Posts: 1,007
yea i should have mentioned rule 1. you have to have an edge.
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Old Nov 12th, 2007, 08:33 PM   #5
Equalizer
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: London
Posts: 1,546
Although NNs and nowadays SVMs may form part of a trading system (i.e., classification for security selection, etc), you'll find that the people in the know have woken up and have reduced their dependence on these. If you think that you can just throw OHLCV and these will magically find the holy grail for you then you are very much mistaken.
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Old Nov 12th, 2007, 08:55 PM   #6
MarkBrown
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: www.markbrown.com
Posts: 1,007
you know one suggestion i will make to you is that i myself fell into the trap of becoming addicted to the chase and not the kill. i still fight my demons every minute, i can often hear my father who has passed saying to me "mark leave it alone its good enough" those hauntings have forged me to stay focused.

mb
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