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blkcrk103
Registered: Sep 2012
Posts: 11 |
10-18-12 12:09 PM
The Global X FTSE Greek 20 ETF (GREK) might be a good way to play this for the smaller investor. It's up over 100% since June.
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Ghost of Cutten
Registered: Aug 2009
Posts: 2625 |
10-26-12 06:36 PM
Quote from Daring:
Do you think a Greek rally will still happen if US markets do a significant pullback like some technical traders are forecasting ?
With that mind, could you please be kind enough to post your US index read for the near future ?
Thank you for your time.
I don't think the price of Greek assets in 2015 or 2018 will have anything to do with short-term movements in the US markets. So, I would completely ignore the latter for the purposes of this investment.
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Ghost of Cutten
Registered: Aug 2009
Posts: 2625 |
10-26-12 06:41 PM
Quote from m22au:
Latest Greek poll:
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_.../10/2012_466703
All three coalition parties trailing SYRIZA, which garnered 23.8 percent, compared to 22.7 for New Democracy. Golden Dawn was third on 9.2, followed by PASOK on 7.2 percent. Democratic Left had 5 percent.
As Mish wrote recently
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogs...tion-wants.html
"As happened in Greece (but so far to a much less extreme in Spain), citizens have shifted well away from the center to far left or far right groups."
I expect this trend to continue.
It's quite possible. However, exactly the same thing happened in previous examples - Brazil and Argentina voted in more left-wing presidents, in the 1930/40s the USA voted FDR into power 4 times and shifted left. Yet stocks performed very well in those circumstances.
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Ghost of Cutten
Registered: Aug 2009
Posts: 2625 |
11-02-12 12:13 AM
Quick update - there's now been a hefty selloff in Greek stocks over the last few days on more default/bailout worries. Since the market has rallied so much from the lows earlier this year, it is quite possible that a correction will continue for a few weeks or even 2-3 months. Selloffs of 20-35% occurred in prior bull markets of this type, so it's quite likely we see the same again over the coming months and years. However, the historical record of bull markets after crushing bear markets like this, is that they shrug off such corrections after a few weeks or months, and eventually move to significant new highs. So, I would say that for anyone flat, now is a good time to make some investments - just be ready to see 20-30% corrections from time to time.
I continue to view the best strategy as allocating a hefty chunk of long-term capital, then ignoring it for the next few years. By 2017 I am pretty confident that Greek assets will be selling for considerably higher prices. The news that is causing this selloff will not be news in 2013, 2014, 2015, or 2016+, when I plan to start selling. The price in those years will be determined by how Greek corporate earnings are doing in those years and prospects for the next few - and no matter what happens in the short-term, it is difficult to conceive of scenarios where prospects are not much better than they are today or have been in the last year. To make money investing after crushing bear markets, it is necessary to 'hold your nose' and ignore the bad news, and instead rely on very cheap valuations, the point of maximum pessimism having been reached, and the high probability that conditions will return to something more normal in forthcoming years. That is the essence of buying when - or after - there is 'blood in the streets'.
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m22au
Registered: Mar 2002
Posts: 3138 |
11-02-12 02:47 AM
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:
To make money investing after crushing bear markets, it is necessary to 'hold your nose' and ignore the bad news, and instead rely on very cheap valuations, the point of maximum pessimism having been reached, and the high probability that conditions will return to something more normal in forthcoming years. That is the essence of buying when - or after - there is 'blood in the streets'.
Regarding 'blood in the streets' - to what extent does a possible exit from the Eurozone factor into your viewpoint?
Previously you said
"The major factor inhibiting prices was the fear of a Euro exit - but that has now been practically eliminated by the introduction of the ECB backstop. And just as importantly, market prices responded very strongly after this news."
Has the "news" in the last week changed your view on this?
Also, given the amount of capital that Greek banks still have not raised, are you buying Greek stocks as a whole, or have you considered excluding bank stocks from your buying agenda?
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