AK Forty Seven
Registered: Jul 2010
Posts: 10567 |
10-18-12 11:30 AM
Quote from John_Wensink:
At some point you will realize how useless intrade is its predictions.
It had corzine at almost 100% the DAY OF the election.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...id=aHESLVopa6GY
Intrade Online Bettors Back Christie Over Corzine in New Jersey
By Jonathan D. Salant - November 3, 2009 11:05 EST
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Online bettors are backing New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie over incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine in today’s election, although polls say the race is too close to call.
Bets that Christie, a former U.S. attorney, would win closed at 55 yesterday on Dublin-based Intrade, meaning the online exchange put his chances of victory at 55 percent. Bets on the chances of Corzine getting a new four-year term closed at 50. Independent Christopher Daggett was given a 1 percent chance of winning.
The surge in online betting for Christie, 47, followed three polls showing a statistical tie with Corzine, 62. A Hamden, Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University poll showed Christie ahead, 42 percent to 40 percent, with 12 percent for Daggett. The survey’s margin of error was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Polls by Madison, New Jersey-based Fairleigh Dickinson University and Monmouth University put Corzine in the lead, 43 percent to 41 percent, over Christie, with Daggett at 8 percent. The Fairleigh Dickinson poll had a margin of error of 3 percentage points, and the figure for the Monmouth survey was 3.7 percentage points.
“Corzine seems to be a very unpopular governor but Christie hasn’t been convincing in his campaign,” said Carl Wolfenden, Intrade’s exchange operations manager.
Virginia’s Race
In Virginia’s gubernatorial election today, Intrade bettors gave Republican Bob McDonnell, 54, a 99 percent chance of winning and ending the Democrats’ eight-year hold on the state’s executive office. McDonnell, the former state attorney general, is running against state Senator Creigh Deeds, 51. An Oct. 22-25 Washington Post poll gave McDonnell an 11 percentage point lead over Deeds, 55 percent to 44 percent.
In a U.S. House race in upstate New York, Intrade bettors gave Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, 59, a 75 percent chance of winning today’s special election for a successor to Republican John McHugh, according to yesterday’s close. Over the weekend, the Republican nominee in the race, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, dropped out and endorsed Democratic nominee Bill Owens, 60. McHugh became secretary of the Army.
A Loudonville, New York-based Siena College survey released yesterday gave Hoffman a 5 percentage point lead over Owens, 41 percent to 36 percent. The survey’s margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
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