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Old Oct 1st, 2012, 06:10 AM   #1
mutluit
 
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Germany
Posts: 269
After recent political statements it looks like the Israelis won't attack Iran
until the US elections are over. Everybody thinks so..., but since everybody (the crowd, lemmings)
think so, that could be a big opportunity for the Israelis to do exactly the unexpected
and thereby profit big by buying puts or shorting stocks en masse
(or buying oil/gas/energy stocks or call options), and then starting a war
when nobody was expecting! These "investors" would make multi-billion profits!
Is this scenario too much far fetched / unrealistic?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_profiteering
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Old Oct 1st, 2012, 06:27 AM   #2
comintel
 
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 1,244
Quote:
Quote from mutluit:

After recent political statements it looks like the Israelis won't attack Iran
until the US elections are over. Everybody thinks so..., but since everybody (the crowd, lemmings)
think so, that could be a big opportunity for the Israelis to do exactly the unexpected
and thereby profit big by buying puts or shorting stocks en masse
(or buying oil/gas/energy stocks or call options), and then starting a war
when nobody was expecting! These "investors" would make multi-billion profits!
Is this scenario too much far fetched / unrealistic?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_profiteering
If so, probably what to expect would be a (perhaps false flag) attack on an Israeli or U.S. vessel that "forced" a response to the Iranian aggression, despite the announced intention to wait.

But the market may be partly expecting something like this anyway - oil has not come down.

The best opportunity may be on the downside after it peaks.
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Old Oct 1st, 2012, 01:10 PM   #3
peilthetraveler
 
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,509
The real money is not in buying oil and going to war, but buying companies that own oil tankers as the tanker market is really depressed. A war with Iran will send tanker rates sky rocketing and many companies like FRO will double nearly overnight and just keep going up.
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Old Oct 1st, 2012, 01:24 PM   #4
BSAM
 
 
Join Date: Sep 1999
Posts: 9,482
Quote:
Quote from mutluit:

After recent political statements it looks like the Israelis won't attack Iran
until the US elections are over....
Brother Mut...The war starts in February 2013.
You owe me a portion of your earnings if you trade based on my prediction.
    Quote
Old Oct 1st, 2012, 02:32 PM   #5
ggold
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 9
2008 a barrel of oil was at $147.00 , a gallon of gas at $4.00 . Today a barrel at $92.00 , a gallon of gas almost $4.00 . Gas prices fell from $4.00 in Sept. of 2008 to $1.62 by Thanksgiving 2008 maybe the same thing happens this year , or all hell breaks loose in Iran & who knows what price it will be.
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