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BSAM
 

Registered: Sep 1999
Posts: 8397

 

09-26-12 09:41 PM

You make some good points, brother Morgan.

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CT10Gov
 

Registered: Sep 2012
Posts: 438

 

09-26-12 09:42 PM

QE is not a technical default. If it is, then CDS on US would trigger. Same for the UK and Japan.

That's an important point: devaluation is a not a default - even if it has a similar effect.

So, a large sovereign can always inflate out of his debt rather than default outright. This point was shown empirically by Rogoff & reinhart's famous book.

But back to your premise. No, technical default is not a good option. It's not the time to consider it.


Quote from morganist:

It is however another option. Is it time to consider it?

Besides isn't QE a technical default?

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morganist
Moderator

Registered: Sep 2008
Posts: 3404

 

09-26-12 10:31 PM


Quote from CT10Gov:

QE is not a technical default. If it is, then CDS on US would trigger. Same for the UK and Japan.

That's an important point: devaluation is a not a default - even if it has a similar effect.

So, a large sovereign can always inflate out of his debt rather than default outright. This point was shown empirically by Rogoff & reinhart's famous book.

But back to your premise. No, technical default is not a good option. It's not the time to consider it.



Perhaps another way to consider it is who pays the bill. If they QE it is America and the American consumer as much as the lender. If it is a creditors agreement it is lender solely who takes the loss. Sound more attractive now?

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Random.Capital
 

Registered: Jan 2005
Posts: 3848

 

09-26-12 10:46 PM


Quote from morganist:

What do you think is this a better proposition than Growth or Austerity?



All that's needed is voters to give a damn about the debt.

And without that, NO mechanism will work.

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oldtime
 

Registered: Jun 2011
Posts: 7389

 

09-26-12 11:07 PM


Quote from morganist:

It is however another option. Is it time to consider it?

Besides isn't QE a technical default?

It's a little early to consider that. Whenever you borrow money, bankrutpcy is always an option. If I was a homeowner in Spain who got foreclosed on I would be out in the streets killing cops. Where they ever got this idea that you can loan money to me and get my collateral if I default and still be owed the money from your foolish loan is against all logical economic reasoning. And if you bought a home under those conditions you need to have the police beat your brains out in the street because you are a poor excuse for a reasoning human being.

otherwise, we the USA already declared bankruptcy back in the early days, it was no big deal, and we will do it again, no big deal, but it is a little early to be talking about that. That's the US system, everybody does it, borrow as much as they will lend you, and when you hit the limit declare bankruptcy.

If you are loaning money to me and you don't understand that is how it is going to end you deserve to be burned for your stupidity.

No country, or dynasty, or empire in the history of the world has ever paid off the kind of debt the USA has incurred, so it is just a matter of time before we default. But in the meantime there is still plenty of money to be made loaning to us and investing in us.

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4thaugust1932
 

Registered: Feb 2012
Posts: 223

 

09-27-12 11:07 AM


Quote from BSAM:

Does America Need to Consider a Creditor's Agreement to Stop the National Debt

No.
We need to consider some changes to the Constitution, to include term limits, and a balanced budget amendment.



+1
US Constitution should be reviewed and rewritten wrt globalization

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