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emg
Registered: Feb 2010
Posts: 5304 |
07-11-12 09:20 PM
Quote from wilburbear:
[B
Why aren't S&P puts the worst bet in history? [/B]
because SP puts have expiration date and the volatility is extreme on the downside (good for time value) vs the upside (bad for time value).
But, if u are a small trader, your silliest bet is trading without a proper Higher Education.
More than 90% of small traders lose. They just lose!
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FreakofNature
Registered: Jun 2011
Posts: 1057 |
07-11-12 10:22 PM
Quote from emg:
because SP puts have expiration date and the volatility is extreme on the downside (good for time value) vs the upside (bad for time value).
But, if u are a small trader, your silliest bet is trading without a proper Higher Education.
More than 90% of small traders lose. They just lose!
I thought Baron told you that if you kept repeating the same nonsense he would ban your ass.
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wilburbear
Registered: Oct 2004
Posts: 3038 |
08-02-12 04:22 PM
A few minutes ago, the Dow was down 100 points , and the VIX was also down 2.5%!
If the stock market goes down, calls for QE3, and other Fed actions, will increase.
The financial markets will be supported at ALL costs. We could have the equivalent of the Irish Patato Famine where people are eating grass, but the stock market will NOT be allowed to decline.
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murray t turtle
Registered: Dec 2001
Posts: 6272 |
08-02-12 07:01 PM
Quote from nonlinear5:
If you are willing to wait for 50 years, it probably makes sense on the long side. Over the shorter time period (such as 1 week, 1 month, or even 1 year), the likelihood of going down is about the same as it's of going up. Look up the S&P chart of the last 12 years. We are about the same as we were back then.
==========
Good points.
Not that 1 week & 1 month uptrend [or downtrend] probabilities are the same as 1 year
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denner
Registered: Aug 2010
Posts: 3267 |
08-02-12 07:54 PM
Quote from wilburbear:
A few minutes ago, the Dow was down 100 points , and the VIX was also down 2.5%!
If the stock market goes down, calls for QE3, and other Fed actions, will increase.
The financial markets will be supported at ALL costs. We could have the equivalent of the Irish Patato Famine where people are eating grass, but the stock market will NOT be allowed to decline.
I think that emotions are getting the best of you. As others have echoed in this thread, the downside risk to this market is ever present; yes it might only last a few days, few weeks, etc...but that doesn't mean that you can just go ahead and blindly sell puts (which is basically your argument, since you say that you can never buy S&P puts).
2008 notwithstanding, just last year there was a very acute decline during the political grandstanding over the debt ceiling. Yes, the market recovered and rallied relentlessly thru early 2012, but again if you had sold S&P puts around this time a year ago, you would have been killed.
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wilburbear
Registered: Oct 2004
Posts: 3038 |
09-06-12 04:37 PM
Quote from wilburbear:
A few minutes ago, the Dow was down 100 points , and the VIX was also down 2.5%!
If the stock market goes down, calls for QE3, and other Fed actions, will increase.
The financial markets will be supported at ALL costs. We could have the equivalent of the Irish Patato Famine where people are eating grass, but the stock market will NOT be allowed to decline.
There are NO conditions under which the stock market will go down and stay down.
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