Registered: May 2009
08-18-12 03:16 AM
I gave up trying to guess what direction the VIX would be heading this or that week/month a long time ago.
Can you believe it's now closer to single digits than the 20's?
It should be easier to explain why it's should be in the 30's than the low teens.
If anyone is long stock, it's a great opportunity to buy insurance.
But if you are engaging in strategies like credit spreads, then the low VIX is irrelevant, since the options on both sides have been reduced.
Betting on a strategy that benefits if the VIX rises seems like a no brainer,... except for the fact that, who can believe it has continued to drop to this point?
I've got about 1,000 stocks on my watch list, and only a few have been high-lighted as being on "alert". That being, as being close to a price I want to know about. I thought I was going to get YHOO this week, but it got away from me. So close.... but not quite close enough.
Between very few of my stocks being on "alert" and the amazingly low VIX,.... this is a market that concerns me as being over valued.
But I'm not williing to place any bets on when the direction will change.
Hence, I'm just sitting patiently and waiting, as i check my watch list a few times a day.
The last trade I made seems like weeks ago, when I sold a $17 TRLG put.
At the moment, I'm too nervous to bet with the market, and too nervous to bet against it.
Oh well,.... good time to catch up on some porn.