RangeTrader
Registered: Mar 2012
Posts: 705 |
08-13-12 09:52 PM
Does anyone know any good books or forums on odds and statistics?
Instead of just having a feel for statistics and roughly calculating them out I want the exact numbers. Not satisfied with "If we have an engulfing reversal off of low prices, the odds are we will go up for month after month after month after month."
Here's my laymans calculation of statistics of the monthly chart...
In this bull market... If we have price pullback of significance (200 points +) Once we have an engulfing reversal the odds of price trend reversing the next month is 0%.
The odds of price continuing upward for five months is 3/4, but the odds of price continuing upward for five months from a pullback of significance is 3/3.
However, odds are actually reducing at this point because of the reduction in long term momentum.
Ok, here's another interesting thing when it comes to the statistics of this market... What are the odds of a reversal? Over 41 months in this market we have had... Six full two month engulfing reversals. The odds of a reversal month are 14.63%. However, those are just based upon any random month in this selection. The actual odds of a reversal increases in a curve as the market moves away from the reversal month.
Ok, lets solve this...
Minimum time between downside full reversals in this market... Seven months. Maximum time of 14 months. Odds of two month reversal occurring needs to be curved based upon the reversal month odds vs the odds of the market reversing in any given random month to solve for a particular month in question...
Gah... Can't solve this one... Anyone help?
 statisticallysignificantmonthly.png
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