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 Forums ›› Community Lounge ›› Politics & Religion ›› Technical Analysis predicts victory for Obama

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 jcl   Registered: Jan 2012 Posts: 407 07-30-12 10:02 AM From someone outside the US like me, it's sort of hard to imagine that Romney has some serious chance against Obama, but a Technical Analysis approach suggests that he has. The Abramowitz model applies a method similar to Technical Analysis to the US presidential elections, resulting in the following formula: PV = 46.9 + (.105*NETAPP) + (.635*Q2GDP) + (5.22*TERM1INC) – (2.76*POLARIZATION) while PV is the predicted share of the major party vote for the party of the incumbent president; NETAPP is for the incumbent president’s net approval rating (approval – disapproval) in the final Gallup Poll in June; Q2GDP is the annualized growth rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the election year; TERM1INC is for the presence or absence of a first-term incumbent in the race; and POLARIZATION is for favoring highly partisan, irrational election decisions as is the case in the US currently. As the BEA came out last Friday with the Q2GDP (1.5%), we can now calculate the votes for Obama: PV = 46.9 + (.105 * 2.0) + (.635 * 1.5) + 5.22 - 2.76 = 50.52 Thus, the Technical Analysis approach predicts a victory for Obama, but a surprisingly tight one due to the Polarization factor. From what we in Europe see and hear from the candidates, we would rather predict a far more clear Obama victory - but US elections are apparently a little different to elections in the rest of the world. Anyway, in all US presidential elections since WWII, the Abramowitz model correctly predicted the votes within a margin of error close to that of the final pre-election Gallup Poll. Edit/Delete • Quote • Complain
 stephan31   Registered: Oct 1999 Posts: 347 07-30-12 01:21 PM I want the drugs you are taking! Or are you naturally scizo; benign though? peace hedvig Edit/Delete • Quote • Complain
 wildchild   Registered: Jul 2011 Posts: 824 07-30-12 02:23 PM Technical analysis is bad at predicting stock moves, it is even worst at predicting how voters vote. Edit/Delete • Quote • Complain
 murray t turtle   Registered: Dec 2001 Posts: 6425 07-30-12 03:26 PM Quote from wildchild: Technical analysis is bad at predicting stock moves, it is even worst at predicting how voters vote. ================ Exactly; probabilities are not predictions, anyway. Example of high probability is the King of Egypt gets thru the Red Sea, but the actual result is Israel gets thru, King of Egypt & his host gets drowned Edit/Delete • Quote • Complain
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