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Old Jul 26th, 2012, 10:45 AM   #1
Chuck E. Cheese
 
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: LA
Posts: 122
25% slide yesterday on weak outlook, 6% slide today. Bulls are running scared. Not even a decent short cover/dip buying bounce yet. 12 million short interest on 55 million shares float. With a book value currently of $12 this pig still has more room to go down.
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Old Jul 31st, 2012, 01:58 PM   #2
Chuck E. Cheese
 
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: LA
Posts: 122
Slow moving train wreck going on. Shorts are in lock down mode. Company has rising content costs/debts and shrinking equity. Going international maybe too little too late. Victim of their own success.
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Old Aug 1st, 2012, 04:25 PM   #3
Joe_Masterson
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 14
Def A victim of their own success
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Old Aug 9th, 2012, 08:50 PM   #4
Chuck E. Cheese
 
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: LA
Posts: 122
Update:

Seem to be stuck like the rest of the market after bouncing off the multi year low of $52.81

Interesting number

Recent high 59.47 (google shows .45) minus low 52.81 = 6.66
The stock is cursed

Very nice trading range around 57-58 for some quick bucks either way.

Very important question is at which price will the funds see value in NFLX or that's it the growth story is over? This will be the price to cover if short or to initiate long position. Right now it's just a trader's stock with trader's volume.

My opinion is while there's some support for NFLX due to the recent bull rush that caused some value hunting buys (weak longs hoping for a bounce over $60). NFLX performance during the next market correction will be very telling. I'm betting that we won't see any type of serious support until low 40's or high 30's or about 3x book value.
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Old Aug 10th, 2012, 06:50 AM   #5
Pekelo
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Your heart and mind
Posts: 9,687
I think NFLX's business model is unsustainable. When you have to pay huge licensing fees for the movies and your costumer base is not willing to pay a lot for subscription, you have a dead business.

Add competition, and your days are numbered... My guess is that Netflix is going to be bankrupt in 3 years or bought by someone else...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3615...ruptcy-in-2013
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Old Sep 4th, 2012, 10:09 AM   #6
Pekelo
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Your heart and mind
Posts: 9,687
Dropped 10+% on news of HBO cornering the Scandinavian market and Amazon adding big movies to its Prime service... At $53.54....
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