Registered: Feb 2003
07-22-12 06:29 PM
Quote from Albert Cibiades:
[QUOTE]Quote from jack hershey:
This is NOT saying that any probability maths is used EVER.
Is that the same as saying "Probability maths is used NOT ever?" Does your mouth represent your mind? You operate on binary decision theory, short or long. I operate on ternary decision theory, short or long or flat. In either case, the thresholding you use to make those decisions is definenitely probabilistic, if not probaballistic. If I didn't disagree, I agreed.[/
I wsn't able to construct a good sentence.
There are lots of binary possibilities. I do not use a chosen set and view it as a set of possibilities. If you have two possibilities and one is happening then the other is NOT happening.
You think I am using one combo and, in fact, I do not use that combo. I use two gerunds and they are NOT opposites.
One gerund is continuing the other is changing. Continuing is a sustained state and changing is a brief category that has it own world of happenings that are events that come and go in a moment.
I do not use a decision theory per se. What I am trying to point out is that there are two parallel systems: one for Monitoring and Analysis and another for placing and handling trading.
I have suggested that there is a system for handling the operation of the market and there is another system for making money at a very high velocity.
Using a lot of capital makes the trading different than what people talk about in ET.
In this forum composed of many threads there is a thread by a person who is using a very imperfect strategy system design process. He gets from garbage in .....garbage out. He is perfoming so far below the market's offer a comparison the market's offer yields that he is statisitically insignificant. He publishes and sells information for a living.
Periodically, I try to discuss trading with others using a referent context. I guess on a Venn diagram it would be like drawing a region where a set of common understandings could be iteratively refined into a whole.
Here in this thread I mentioned how information could be created and then used to complete essential tasks for completing monitoring and analysis. Infomation is also created for using the results of analysis to do decion making and then taking timely actions.
All of these to parts are very different from the OODA that you use. Betting and appraising bets is never going to be cpable of taking the market's full offer.
By examining how the market works, it is possible to conclude that predicting is NOT necessary. Neither is spending time trying to learn how to set stops, when a system of stops doe not work if a person is a significant player in the markets.
Is there any common ground?