Registered: Jan 2010
07-06-12 01:28 AM
Quote from bwolinsky:
Would you like to play craps instead of trading?
If the bankroll needed to start was my size, and there was no question about eventually coming out ahead, yes i would. Same with baccarat. My research suggests it's possible so i want to find out if it's doable. I'm just focused on roulette because there are busy forums where there's a lot of research and development going on...years of experience and brainpower going into contributions...a few of which suggest it is possible.
Quote from bwolinsky:
It's good you're looking for systematic ways to make money but roullette, craps, or any card game is a gamble, and unless your strategies in trading perform up to snuff for a few months, practically all of your time should be spent coding trading systems, not exploring avenues with certain financial ruin.
The following is a pic of a forex robot i tested for four months running continuously from a server in the cloud, looking at only two pairs. It appears to be offering about 500% per year:
These next couple of pics are from roulette system that someone has developed. Do they look random to you?
When comparing the potential, assuming the latter is an actual roulette system, one must consider the size of bankroll needed to operate efficiently, and the rate of return possible.
With potential like this, i think it's worth my time to find out more, using an open mind, before i rule out roulette as a "certain ruin".
Quote from bwolinsky:
Seriously, get a monte carlo sheet of your live trades then see if they don't lead to a 10+% chance of ror. Once the strategies are prepared, then you can actually make money, but, really, it may be fun to watch a computer play roulette, but it's ruin is certain whereas trading's ruin is not impossible but significantly more unlikely because the betting size is never large enough to lose the entire amount "invested."
There are some pretty good money managers in roulette also, who only need a breakeven game to always come out. Starting with a European wheel, the house edge is 2.7%, which is further cut in half by using en prison and/or la partage. Any system that can beat a 1.35% house edge allows you to walk into a multitude of casino's world-wide (mostly outside of U.S.) and make some money sooner or later. There are also European wheels online, both live and RNG, same rules. In addition, there is at least one online casino with both a good reputation and a No Zero wheel, giving the house no edge except the table limits and it's bigger bankroll (assuming the RNG is fair).
Some folks swear they can come out ahead flat betting against a 1.35% house edge on Even Chance (EC) bets. I aim to find out if this is true using what programming literacy i can marshal and/or harness.
If a successful system can be found, it may also be packaged into a bot that can play automatically. That bot can also be programmed to mimic human signatures so it cannot be detected and/or disqualified.
So with these kinds of possibilities, i figure it is worth a few weeks of my time to get to the bottom of it. My methods are the same. Whether in Forex or Roulette, i rely on the goodness of human generosity to find a general method, and tweak it (if need be) with whatever development abilities i posses. There is some secrecy among players, just as there is much secrecy among traders in these forums. I am tending to go where i find the most generosity and least arguments.
Keep in mind the similarities between the two. Almost any entry is about 50/50 when the take-profit is equal to the stop-loss. After that both venues have a vig and/or commission of x%. That has to be overcome by increasing the win rate and/or the average win compared to the average loss...combined with careful money management. It's not entirely true that one's bet size would equal the entire size of the "investment" or what is called the bankroll(BR). There, as here, people are risking just a small percentage of BR per bet, relying on the "grind" to pull their profits ahead.
Yes, i sometimes wonder where my time is best spent. Whether the verdict comes down for or against roulette, i feel this is a "bet" that my time is well spent, and that the results will translate into what we would classify as an "investment".