Registered: Dec 2004
05-09-12 04:29 PM
Quote from dumb_mother:
let me show you the math of why buying real estate (in chicago at least) is a terrible investment right now. let's see how things would have treated you over the past 12 months. i'll look specifically at the unit i'm currently renting.
home (or most likely condo) value 500k
100k down payment + 400k loan (now if you do FHA loan you have even more in loan which will prove to make the math even worse, so this is a safe assumption.)
property tax between 1-2% = 1.5% as an estimate
PMI = .5%
leaves you with a mortgage payment of $2,486.55 or $29,838.6 for the year.
after one year you will have built up approximately $11,000 in equity
homes in chicago fell by 6.9% last year, so in the process of building $11,000 in equity your home will have gone down in value by approx $34,000.
all-in-all you will have spent $30,000 to lose $23,000 leaving an effective loss of $53,000 for the past year and likely had to dump at least 1k into further maintenance (huge lowball there)
now let's see what happened if you rented that same house:
rent per month of $2800 = $33,600
got your landlord to pay 1k to fix things that broke for you
total expense for the year of -$32,600
so if you bought the house you were about -$54k (after factoring the "equity" you built), and if you rented you were about -$33k....
this is why i'm laughing at the people who bought last (this/next/year after next) year. until housing stops going down in value (and there is no reason to expect it will not continue to go down in value anywhere except for the places it has already catastrophically dropped... ie NOT chicago) you definitely should not be buying anything.
Ok, I agree that if you plan to live somewhere for 1 year then your math and idea is correct, renting beats buying. However most people always need somewhere to live, so if you start to do the math on 5, 10, 15 or 20 years owning kills renting. You also have to factor in that housing isn't going to drop 7% a year for the next 5 years.
(how do I know that?)
The Condo I bought, I currently pay 30 to 45% less than I would if rent to exact same place. Also I paid less than it would cost to build the building, so either rent and cost of materials/labor need to decrease dramatically (which can happen) or housing should appreciate. (in the long term) Even if housing just stays where it is owning will beat renting.
The people saying that rent will beat buying are looking from 2007 to now and thinking the market will continue down, thats a bad assumption, in my opinion. The S&P looked pretty bad in mid-2001, 2002 but if you bought then you have done pretty well, even after the 2008 financial crisis.