Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 799

somethings brewing here

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 799

So far we have had what seems to be a fake break down from our triangle. This was mainly driven by the news. From there today at 1680 we have touched our bullish channel but not yet entered in to it.

Rarely we see price go through the triangle and stay between the new forming triangle ( if you extend the triangles lines you make a new triangle after the points intersect.

In this new triangle price tends to touch both lines until it decides on a direction. This is where we are today. This is not to be seen as neutral.

Since we were on a down trend we were expecting to fall all the down to our multi year year channel. This would of been the place for that to happen but it didn't.

We have to be careful. every one wants there to be a short term channel entry here. Any bit of positive news can bring us in a channel where people will start driving price.

At 1680 where we stand right now, we have touched but not entered the bullish channel. Typically this would be a good place to short. But we all hope that it breaks in to the bullish triangle.

Todays movement seems to be driven channels more so then news. we experienced a break out of a bearish triangle.

a little bit of QE would be great right about here.

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 799

gold at 1665

So we said it would be good to short at 1680. I have not been keeping up with my journal as there does not seem to be all that much interest.

A few days ago we broke out of a down trend. From here anything can happen but since we did'nt continue to move down a sell would have been placed at 1637

Right now gold is at 1665 for those who would think that I am purposely delaying my journal. If we go by live gold price we are still at a profit.

Now we get on the side lines a bit and take a break, one can enter here as a strategy but that is not the strategy I am trading right now and find that that trade may be too high risk.

right now we are in neutral territory based on my system so we wait for a an entry which can possibly take a month.

Its hard to give numbers as my trend lines are on angels thus price changes after time. but estimating rates of change these are the really ruff numbers we are looking at :




1550 june 1st
1800 in june
1930 after june (july aug)

again these numbers are so ruff and on top of it i had to estimate price at a certain time.

Only one or maybe 2 of these price points should be hit.

Regardless we are not taking a position. nor are we beting on any of the above numbers. its simply a place where we relook at the charts . From there we look for our entry and place our bets

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 799

a very interesting triangle forms on our gold chart. Currencies look interesting also

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 799

We are looking for silver to bounce near these levels around 28 $

This would be a good place to go long. But if we have a failure, this will break a long term trend putting gold in a questionable situation.

The strength of long term trends may be questioned more if silver breaks one.

This trend goes back to 2008/2005 And in my opinion has satyed intact since then.

As gold and silver have both for the first time gone over the 50% channel line, this has thrown off alot of peoples trading systems that have been working for year.(buy and hold and profit)

Since we retraced back to the bottom of the channel investors may feel as though gold has let them down and may be less inclined to buy at support.

Seems like silver will be the first to hit its support (28ish) and then gold will follow. Ideally a failure in this support level would mean gold may fall off trend

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 799

what we very well may see is a big reaction to small news. Or no reaction to big news.

Often we are given all sorts of excuses as to why a big reaction occurs to small news or vice versa.

The truth is, reaction to news is 50 % the news and 50% when the news occurs.

If we are in between channels then there are less long term players and day trader/short term swing traders will play the news and you will see big moves.

But if we are near support and the general sentiment is to bounce up, then the bounce up will happen on the back of any insignificant news.

If the general sentiment is the trend is over and to sell then that will happen regardless of what the news may be.

The funny thing is once we hit this resistance,If there are not enough long term players, and mostly day traders are involved.
then it may happen the the day traders will play the news and effect the chart and break our long term support causing long term investors to escape after years of consistent growth.

We, the day traders need to respect this support line to keep gold on track and consistent. If we break the long term trend, all our trading strategies will need to be changed, and as we change them so do others, so it will be randomness for a while.

If i could buy at that level I would.

Naturally, we will all just run our programs with no regard for the long term trend and then we will complain.

This support will have less reaction as even longer term traders may feel that gold has broke out of a channel at 1900 and now it may break out at the bottom.

Since silver will hit the support line first, we will have an idea of what to expect. As for gold the support is lower then 1550 to 1600 for the time being.

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