Forums > Technically Speaking > Technical Analysis > Trading Levels

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Old May 3rd, 2012, 11:22 AM   #7
Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 19,097
Quote from Frank Furter:

I want to expand on the context issue, but one quick sidetrack if I may.

This was posted on Tuesday around noon when I posted on a different thread that Nat Gas and Oil were rising into decision points.

"Dude, your levels are off. I got confirmed weeklies in NG and USO"

Since that time Nat Gas and Oil have pulled backed significantly off of the decision points that were posted as shown in the attached chart. Holding longs at those levels proved to be quite painful.

That is not to say the bias on either is short, I am not saying that, and I do want to get back to context which gives us the best chance of being on the right side of the market in all timeframes. It is also not to say I am right and someone else is wrong. I have been wrong more times than I would care to admit.

So my point, 2 fold ... First, have an open mind. Your method and mine can always be improved, tweaked (if the statistics prove you out). You or I haven't cornered the market on perfection.

Second ... call bullshit when you see it. This is a forum, not a worship center to a trader or a methodology.
Frank, your "levels" or my "levels" are meaningless. What does hold meaning is how YOU trade your own levels. You have no idea how long someone's time frame is on a trade, whether it be minutes, days, weeks or months. This idea that some trader is taking pain because they did not get out at some "decision" point is ludicrous. This is analogous to someone who has been long AAPL since 100 and is sitting in a pullback from 640 to 580 and saying they are taking pain. I would hardly call that pain. To someone who bought long at 640 as a daytrade and they are now sitting on a long term trade 60 pts in the hole, that is pain.

Not trying to hijack this thread, just trying to offer context. I felt obligated to post since you were referencing the ACD thread. Nobody over there is worshiping anything, we are just trading.
Old May 3rd, 2012, 11:31 AM   #8
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 1,419
Quote from Frank Furter:

This thread will be about what I refer to as trading levels. Trading levels have been around as long as there have been markets. Nobody invented them and nobody has a patent on the right values.
Good thread so far, keep it coming. Would like to hear more about how the decision points are created.
Old May 3rd, 2012, 11:34 AM   #9
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,719
Quote from keeptradin':

Good thread so far, keep it coming. Would like to hear more about how the decision points are created.
I've been wondering the same thing.
How does he identify the decision points?
Old May 3rd, 2012, 11:41 AM   #10
Frank Furter
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 86
Mav, since we are on my thread I will speak my mind a little more than I would on your thread.

If we are talking ludicrous, I would say the notion that your levels, my levels, the next guys levels dont matter, as long as we are all consistent is hogwash, which is what has been mentioned numerous times there.

So if that is true, lets make up some levels, say 1 pt +/- some arbitray value. How do you think that would backtest out if I followed it to a T? It would be ugly, but I would have been very consistent.

And to my original post in your thread, I DID NOT say go short. I said I would have been long looking for a reason to exit. That level and the reaction to it gave me the reason. I can have a long bias on something for the next 5 years, that doesnt mean i buy and hold it for 5 years. I am looking for proven stats that say this is the most likely event to occur when we hit this level, and if that means a pullback, i exit and wait for it to tell me its safe to enter the water again.

Enough of this ... we disagree on numerous topics. I have stopped posting there because a new view on using levels was obviously not accepted very well there because it didn't fit the mold as some saw it. I will not disrupt that thread and agree to disagree with you and leave it at that. I ask you to do the same here.

Thanks and good luck to you.
Old May 4th, 2012, 05:33 AM   #11
Frank Furter
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 86
60 min chart crude snapshot. Crude reached the 102.5 level between 11 - noon yesterday and sat there for next 15 hours or so before falling thru.

I think we re-test that area. How soon depends on news and what happens with the US dollar today / next week.
Attached Images
File Type: png cl2.png (9.1 KB, 71 views)
Old May 4th, 2012, 09:05 AM   #12
Frank Furter
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 86
60 min chart of Nat Gas this week bouncing off the level discussed several times earlier this week.

I will post some more charts and what I look at this weekend for those that are interested. Happy Trading.
Attached Images
File Type: png ng.png (8.0 KB, 51 views)
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