Forums > Technically Speaking > Technical Analysis > Simplicity in TA

Old Apr 29th, 2012, 07:07 PM   #481
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 321
Thanks for the charts.

I did glance at the bigger picture but it didn't help me with the scenario I described. Let me explain...

On April 10, price came down and closed on a daily chart trendline, as shown on your chart.

On April 11 the market bounced off that trendline with a gap up. But that still doesn't solve the problem of the conflicting messages between SPY and DIA on my trading timeframe. Do I long the SPY backtest in anticipation that the daily TL bounce will continue? Or do I short the DIA channel limit in anticipation of a gap fill?

That dilemma really messes with my head. It is a lot easier for me to just trade one or the other. If I'm a SPY trader I go long on the backtest and take my hit when it doesn't work out. No big deal and on to the next. Though obviously it would be better to have been a DIA trader on that particular day.

It is so tempting to look back in hindsight and think "if I'd been watching the DIA I'd have known resistance was there and I wouldn't have been stopped out!" But I don't think it's that simple and straightforward. Adding the second set of lines changes the decision making process dramatically, at least for me.

If anyone does trade successfully using more than one index on your trade entry timeframe, I'd love to see some examples of how you do it. I can deal with watching both on a daily chart, but on the intraday trading timeframe it's a no go for me!

That blue channel was a minor channel anyway, one that inferred a possible steeper downward acceleration that never happened. When that didn't happen price bounced back into the bigger channel structure of that down move into the daily TL, and I got another SPY channel breakout backtest the next day that worked out very profitably.
Old Apr 29th, 2012, 08:23 PM   #482
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: chicago
Posts: 20,730
i watch the spx,es and spy on the tl's and the market profile,also watch the dj transports for confirmation on turns and fakes,early halts before target, blow thru targets,the key word is targets ,if you just trade around supp and res you will make a lot less trades with higher percenatge of winners and your losers will be small since you will know soon if you are wrong..but watching mutiple instruments is a must, the market is sensitive to the euro solvency and its smaller members,if you are not watching these ,expect to be surprised,multiple market awareness is a must,not a far as your spy dow ques,if you have conflicting signals ,its not a place to put on a trade,high percentage or sit on your hands
Old Apr 29th, 2012, 09:28 PM   #483
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 321
Those are good points.

I agree that if there are conflicting signals then it's not high percentage and you should definitely stay out. Problem is when I'm looking at too much stuff there are almost always conflicting signals.

So you watch TL's on SPX, SPY, and ES? Wow, that would drive me crazy because the lines tend to be in slightly different places on each one.
Old Apr 30th, 2012, 09:18 AM   #484
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Togo
Posts: 1,781
I didn't get time for an update this weekend. I am interested in getting the close for the month as we are on a Doji now and prices often close here.

The last daily ABC pattern has just developed into a bigger daily ABC pattern so the analysis is pretty much a re-run of the last ABC top and this still holds the potential for W2 top and W3 down.

Very clear TL and top horizontal resistance for a simple buy above and sell below.
Attached Images
File Type: png dow bigger abc.png (50.2 KB, 79 views)
Old Apr 30th, 2012, 02:32 PM   #485
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 380
The pennant we faked down exhaustive itself at pennant resistance.
Attached Images
File Type: png pennan-target.png (149.8 KB, 65 views)
Old Apr 30th, 2012, 04:26 PM   #486
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 380
Houston we have a ....

Well right shoulder

We going to need to clear that for new highs or this baby has questions to answer.
Attached Images
File Type: png hs.png (134.5 KB, 67 views)
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