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Old Apr 28th, 2012, 04:59 PM   #7
AAAintheBeltway
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 15,865
I think this is a very valid concept, and I have to admit it is one I am not good at observing. I know my results would be a lot better if I did.
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Old Apr 28th, 2012, 05:02 PM   #8
RangeTrader
 
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 705
AAAintheBeltway it's kind of a tricky thing to measure because it varies depending upon the overall market fear level. There are a couple ways to put it down into exact rules though.

Here are my current time rules on daily-4d. The stronger the trend/momentumn is, the less time the market takes to consolidate on dips. I base my time rules on the EXACT amount of time from the last lowest low in the down cycle and the last highest high in the up cycle.

I'm personally very skeptical of this rally into may. Were entering the last gasp rally phase. Like early 2010, or march into summer 2011. Everyone knows it too... It's just a question of who the hell can time the perfect spot to get out before everyone jumps off a cliff... LoL! Everyone seems to have 1440 stuck in their head. Pretty much all parabolic rallies fail in a ugly fashion at some point. I stay away from parabolic moves in daytrading... Don't like em one bit.

If there is a great trade setup I may buy some puts, but if there isn't... Who cares... Scalping futures long off dips in rallies with decent internals has given me the most consistent results of anything.


I shifted the left chart back in time a bit so you could see what my charts said during this correction move late.
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Old Apr 28th, 2012, 05:13 PM   #9
HurricaneUS
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: New York
Posts: 889
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showth...04#post3415204


"Josh,

I'm reposting my original post. Take special note of "it took some years to find a way to make it work". Here, I'm specifically referring to Rule 1. Rule 1 is not vague at all but actually trying to implement it will be a bitch.

I tried all sorts of combinations starting with time based stops and price action stops. I ultimately settled on a "combination" in conjunction with intermarket analysis. I daytrade stocks so I'm heavily watching the s&p and if I don't like what I see I will try and get out at entry, small loss, or protect a breakeven status. Unfortunately, I can't get much more specific than that.

I will say that there is no "correct" solution for rule 1. You just have to tinker around with different combinations of observations until you settle upon something that works for your setups.

The gist of Rule 1 is to avoid having your initial stop get hit in the first place. In this case, don't wait for the market to go against you or vacillate. GET OUT because you are not being proven right. Mark Fisher talks about this as well when he says that you should be one of the few participants buying at a level. If price stays in an area long enough for the "crowd" to get the same price as you, then you're no better off than the crowd.

To get an idea of what I'm talking about. A typical scenario for me will look like: breakeven, breakeven, small loss, average size winner, breakeven, breakeven, breakeven, breakeven, huge winner"
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Old Apr 28th, 2012, 07:22 PM   #10
ocean5
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 934
@RT,

And what is your time indicator?Your nose?

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Old Apr 28th, 2012, 07:27 PM   #11
KastyG
 
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 516
Quote:
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

I think this is a very valid concept, and I have to admit it is one I am not good at observing. I know my results would be a lot better if I did.
you've been trading for how long but never considered time as a relevant factor?

you been on here since 2001, i assume you been trading before this?
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Old Apr 28th, 2012, 08:58 PM   #12
Wide Tailz
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: California
Posts: 1,953
I've seen this secret posted elsewhere and never go around to back testing it.

But it does seem logical that good trades show you a profit immediately.
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