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logic_man
 

Registered: Oct 2010
Posts: 1489

 

04-27-12 04:36 PM

Analysts meet with the companies multiple times in a quarter (or at least in a year), so they have about as much information about the company as the company's own insiders do.

Listen to companies' earnings calls and you will see that the top management of the companies is typically pretty chummy with the analysts who cover it. That's because they interact relatively frequently.

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piezoe
 

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 4934

 

04-27-12 04:42 PM


Quote from noob_trad3r:

How is this possible. Analyst says Q3 EPS will be 48 cents. Company reports 49 cents.

How can these analysts be so accurate?

That would be like playing roulette and always getting the number or one off every time.

Statistically something seems odd.



That's a 20% error margin. Big company can usually offer guidance with less than 20% error. "Analyst" a.k.a. "(Manipul)yst" has no problem getting within 20% when they want to, or going high or low when they want to create a miss.

When a company is tight-lipped and silent on guidance, (Manipu)lyst can easily miss big time. It's all a game designed to feed pablum to CNBC and transfer money from you to Wall Street. (Exception: small independent analyst shops.)

(Manipu)lyst's are people who trade their integrity for a paycheck.

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peilthetraveler
 

Registered: Jun 2005
Posts: 7065

 

04-27-12 06:56 PM


Quote from noob_trad3r:

How is this possible. Analyst says Q3 EPS will be 48 cents. Company reports 49 cents.

How can these analysts be so accurate?

That would be like playing roulette and always getting the number or one off every time.

Statistically something seems odd.



Analyst are always moving their numbers though. I wouldnt say its like roulette...I would say its like blackjack, but the analysts are changing their bets depending on what the first card is dealt.

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denner
 

Registered: Aug 2010
Posts: 3269

 

04-28-12 03:36 AM

Accounting "gimmickry" plays no small part. Granted, most of it is allowed, but over the past decade or so, most of the investing community has become cynical enough to just accept it as part of the status quo.

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Mercor
 

Registered: Jun 2007
Posts: 3852

 

04-28-12 03:42 AM

I think there are criminal repercussions if guidance is misleading.

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nutmeg
 

Registered: Jan 2007
Posts: 18229

 

04-28-12 01:25 PM

I think there are web sites out there that list the stats on how many times analysts are correct and how often cos hit their target.

So you're back to playing the odds.

Imo, the killer on earnings estimates is when cos lower guidance. Yes, they might lower guuidance after reporting but I'm talking about prior to earnings season or weeks after.

There is no way to gaurd against this. (at least that I know of).

One I never will forget. Everything is going along honkey dory and boom stock drops like a rock losing about 60% in minutes on a Friday afternoon. Co lowers guidance. How in the heck could I expect that?

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